Vooch's blog

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Unilever (UL and UN)

Today, I started new positions in Unilever (UL and UN).

Bought UL @ $27.31/share.

Bought UN @ $28.18/share.

The stock showed up in my screens last night, and after running the numbers, it looks like a great buy here.

They own over 30 well-known brand names, including All Detergent, Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream, Bryer's Ice Cream, Caress, Dove, Klondike, Lipton, Popsicle, Promise, Q-Tips, Ragu, Slimfast, Snuggle, Vaseline, and many more.

The P/E ratio is lower today than at any point in over 10 years.

- Vooch
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www.NationalGuardWarrior.com

Check out the latest project I've been working on:  http://www.NationalGuardWarrior.com

It features Dale Earnhardt Jr. and the latest music video by Kid Rock called, "Warrior".

Be sure to check it out and tell your friends!

Thanks,
- Vooch
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eBay (EBAY). The World's Online Market Place

EBAY already wrote-off Skype in Q3 2007 for a -$0.69 loss.

2008 EPS estimated at $1.58, which is double what it was two years ago. In 2009, it goes up to $1.78.

If you look at ANY alternative to eBay (eg. Amazon, Overstock, uBid), they are all doing less than 1% of what eBay does, so none of them are a threat - they're all circle jerkin' themselves.

EBAY's power is in it's brand name and Network Effects. Many have tried to duplicate, but no one has been able to replicate their success.

The depressed stock price is because Meg Whitman sold off a lot of her shares, and the one-time -$0.69 charge last year.

13% of the stock is pure cash - and they have zero long-term debt.

Over the past 3 years, EBAY's Price/Book has fallen from 10:1 to 3:1, which means we're near the bottom. Ever hear of See's Candy? Buffett bought them when their Price/Book was 3:1.

And if you still think I'm dumb, take a look at all these famous Value Investors who paid more than I did recently:
http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=EBAY

As you see, there's nine of 'em buying millions of shares.

Not only that, EBAY's CFO bought the stock recently. Now, when does the CFO buy stock? When it's gonna go up.

People keep saying auctions are down and they're toast, but look at the revenue numbers - they are UP every year for the past 10 years. This stock will not stay down forever.

In fact, I bought more EBAY just now for $25.39/share as I am building this into a core position slowly.
I'm betting on consumers substituting by buying used items (EBAY) instead of new items (Amazon) to maintain their standard of living. We all know that Americans are not saving money right now, so they're gonna have to trade-down if they want to get above water again.

I've been buying some 'like new' books on EBAY. The prices are less than 40% of what Amazon charges.

- Vooch

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Fed Funds rate remains unchanged

The Fed announced no change in the Fed Funds rate today.
 
From the Business Cycle perspective, we're still in the bottom of the trough.
 
Recommended sectors to review/buy:
 - Consumer cyclicals
 - Retailers
- Homebuilders

Sectors to sell/avoid:
- Consumer staples
- Utilities
- High Yield dividend stocks

- Vooch
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The Case for Buying HD at $23.42

I've been buying more HD recently.  Today, it closed at $23.42.

Tonight, I noticed somebody spent $325k to buy 25,001 HD Jan2009 37.50 Calls, so I had a look at the recent housing data.  Here it is:



A picture is worth a thousand words, so look at my pictures.

In Chart #2, HD is sitting on the long-term support line, imo.  This means I'm going to increase my rate of buying the stock if the stock remains at (or goes below) today's prices.

Do your own Due Dilligence, but I'm just telling you what I'm doing.

- Vooch

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Home Depot (HD) Quarterly Conference Call Notes

These are my notes from the quarterly HD conference call:

Q1 sales $17.9B down -3.4%
Same Store Sales down -6.5%

Diluted EPS 21 cents (includes 20 cent charge to shut down 15 stores)

Positives:
- showed merchandising improvements
- stopped promotional activity, which erodes brand name
- more customer-facing hours
- took stores out of the pipeline that will free up $1 Billion in cash
- China, Mexico, and Canada - all stores with positive same store sale comps

Negatives:
- weak demand for non-seasonal products
- home prices down -7.7%
- housing turnover down 30%
- more risk than opportunity for remainder of year

Focusing on the customer.
Voluntary turnover declining double digit rates - employees happier
Higher costs of credit due to private label credit card
Credit sales is 30% of the business.

There's 3 components to Cost of Credit:
1). Deferred Interest - this is a fixed fee paid for "no interest, no payments for 6 months on purchases over $299". It gets charged to Cost of Goods Sold. COGS.
2). Gain Share - Profit/Losses from people using the credit cards. These profits are going away because of defaults.
3). Interchange Fee - A charge to HD for the transaction.

Cost of Credit in 2007, as a % of credit sales, was less an 0.5% of sales.
In 2008, it should be around 2%.
Under stress testing, it could be as high as 4%.

Delinquencies were higher than anticipated, but have now stabilized.

- Vooch

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Buffett bought BNI, KFT, M&TBank, SNY and sold Ameriprise, and reduced Iron Mountain.

Buffett bought BNI, KFT, M&TBank, SNY and sold Ameriprise, and reduced Iron Mountain.

- Vooch
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3-year performance

This past Saturday marked my third year as a Value Investor. So far, I've been doing great - beating my benchmark, the S&P500, by almost a double. My annualized return comes out to around 12%/year, which I think is pretty good in these harsh market conditions. I'm not a guru yet, but my game seems to get better with time.

My goal is to beat the S&P500.

I've learned a lot over the past 3 years, and I hope to do better in the future.

http://www.quantinetics.com/images/vooch-20080503.jpg

- Vooch
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Market Cycles

Yes, we're still in a bear market.

Judging from all the bad news lately, it's probably time to start buying up some great stocks.

I've been busy buying some stocks last week, and I'm sure I'll probably be buying more this week.

- Vooch

P.S.  Click on the image to enlarge









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Sears Holdings (SHLD)

I just got finished reading Eddie Lampert's letter to the shareholders. I started a new position in SHLD at $97.75/share recently.

After reading it, I had so many key points I wanted to post here, I decided to just provide the link:
http://www.searsholdings.com/invest/

It's jam-packed with great information.

Eddie Lampert is a superstar in my book. I have never lost money with him when I invested in AZO and SHLD in the past.

- Vooch

P.S. I wonder if they'll start selling DieHard batteries at AutoZone soon?
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