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Bought CB KR VAR WAG WMT . Sold BVN (made +140% gain)
Bought CB 48.65 (1% weight)
KR 20.28 (1% weight)
VAR 45.54 (1% weight)
WAG 37.31 (1% weight in one account.  bought this in two accounts.... The much larger purchase was bought at 37.00)
WMT 54.24 (1% weight)
 
Sold BVN for approximately 35.45 (made about +140% gain on this one!)
 
On Friday night, I calculated BVN at 99% of Intrinsic Value.  My rule is to sell when it hits 80%, so it was way above that.  Even though my order got cancelled yesterday, I placed it again today, even though it was -5% lower.  Gold is unpredictable.  However, I stayed disciplined, and got out when the price was above 80% of my Intrinsic Value calculation.  I made a nice +140% profit on this one, and BVN was over 10% of my portfolio when I got out.
 
KR was Kroger.  I already owned it, and it took about a -13% tank this morning before I added to my position.  Combined, I'm down -3.57% now on this stock.  They had bad news.  I'm thinking about holding this for the long-term, so I didn't mind adding to it today.  I figured this was the perfect opportunity to add to the position - when Mr. Market is depressed.
 
- Vooch
By Vooch at 2009-12-08 23:19 | Stocks | login or register to post comments
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Status Update - Things are going great!
In response to a question on ActiveValueTrader.com, I'm posting this snippet, so you can see what I'm doing in the markets today....

I'm still holding the SDS at a -14.67% loss currently, which is something I will continue to manage.  The important thing about averaging down is you don't want to keep digging a hole when you're already in a hole.  This means, don't average down for the sake of averaging down.

I don't consider my SDS position a mistake yet, especially since it's a minimal 1% weight.  Since I do not consider it a mistake, I will wait for when the opportunity presents itself, and average down at that point.

If I thought SDS was a mistake, I would have sold it for a loss, without question.

For the past few months, I've been 90% long, 1% short, and 9% cash.

I'm holding two losers, larger than SDS.  They are FSLR -21.76% (a 2% weight in my portfolio) and ISBC -24.92% (another 2% weight in my portfolio).  The ISBC was from an arbitrage play that went bad on me.  In fact, I think it's the only arbitrage play where I lost any money, and the jury is still out on whether I lose money on it or not.

I also have 2 other stocks in my portolio, which are also losing money:  AZN -2.95% and GILD -4.76%.

The winners still in my portfolio are:  BNI, BVN, CVX, ENDP, GOOG, JNJ, K, KFT, KO, KR, MBT, MCD, MOS, PEP, PG, SNN, SYK, WAG, WMT, and XOM.

Overall, my winners far outweigh the losers, especially BVN with a +165.65% gain and 10.56% weighting right now.  I will be reevaluating BVN soon, as gold is in a manic phase.  Manias can last a long time, and when the U.S.A. increases the money supply, via deficit spending, it only helps BVN, so I'm really not in a rush to look at it.

K, PG, and WMT are also heavy positions and winning.

- Vooch
By Vooch at 2009-12-02 23:42 | Stocks | login or register to post comments
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Wal-Mart (WMT)
With yesterday's news that Warren Buffett increased his position in Wal-Mart (WMT), I looked up the last 2 times I calculated Intrinsic Value for WMT:

4/12/09 $95.84/share

8/1/09 $117.47/share

These were my purchases across all accounts for 2009 for WMT:

8/3/09 $49.747537/share

8/5/09 $49.27/share (the big purchase)

8/6/09 $49.00/share

9/25/09 $49.725/share

Again, I think Buffett is paying less than 50 cents on the dollar (just like he did with BNI, recently).

- Vooch

By Vooch at 2009-11-18 02:16 | Stocks | 1 comment
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Wal-Mart (WMT)
Yesterday, it was disclosed Warren Buffett increased his stake in Wal-Mart (WMT).

WMT is my largest position in my real portfolios, and even here!
 
w00000000h000000000000!

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=76347

http://www.activevaluetrader.com/forums/index.php?topic=235.msg940#msg940

- Vooch
By Vooch at 2009-11-17 23:21 | Stocks | login or register to post comments
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More on Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI)
After hitting today's Home Run with BNI (+25% gain in 10 days), several people asked me what Intrinsic Value I came up with ten days ago for BNI, so I looked it up tonight, and the answer I arrived at, ten days ago, was $202.19/share.

I paid $79.085/share for BNI ten days ago.  The merger is supposedly worth $100/share now, but time will tell.

It's amazing, but it looks like Mr. Buffett, in my eyes, wants to buy BNI for less than 50 cents on the dollar.  Keep in mind, Intrinsic Value anticipates forthcoming periods of market euphoria, when Mr. Market reswings the pendulum in the opposite direction (ie. from a depressive-state to a manic-state).

My methodology is private right-now, but will be released to the public if/when I publish the book I've been writing since 2002.  I believe I'm only a couple more years away before I'm ready to publish.

Anyways, I try to buy stocks for 40-50 cents on the dollar, just like Mr. Buffett.

To quote the master, Mr. Buffett himself:

"It's extraordinary to me the idea of buying dollar bills for 40 cents takes immediately with people or it doesn't at all.  It's like an inoculation.  If it doesn't grab a person right way, I find that you can talk to him for years and show him records, and it doesn't make any difference."

- Vooch
By Vooch at 2009-11-03 23:18 | Stocks | login or register to post comments
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Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI)

I hit another Home Run today!

As you learned here on October 23rd, I bought BNI.

Today, Warren Buffett announced that his is buying BNI for about $100/share.

I made about +25% in 10 days, and I hope you were able to join me.  If you did, congratulations!

- Vooch

By Vooch at 2009-11-03 12:08 | Stocks | login or register to post comments
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Only Fifty (50) S&P500 points away from The Crossroads
The S&P500 is about 50 points away from being able to bust out of the Bear Market.

I say "being able", because my experience has been when a merket busts out of a Bull or Bear market, it does so in a very big way.  This means, if we break out of the Bear Market this time, it'll be a substantial rise...guessing 150-250 points on the S&P500 from here.  I don't have my previous data handy, so I'm guessing here.

Today, I still think we're in a Bear market.  Here's why:

(1)  On Friday, we get new U.S. Unemployment numbers.  They are expected to get worse than the current 8.9% figure.

Recent dealership closings will trickle-down onto several industries in the future (eg. restaurants and retailers).  I was surprised to hear that Wal-Mart WMT is going to stop giving same-store-sales figures.  You know what that means?  It's going down, imo!

(2)  Recent GM-related bankruptcies will stifle any chances for auto sales growth.  I know firsthand, because I've been looking to buy a new car, but the uncertainties in today's climate prevent me from becoming a buyer for several reasons:

(a)  I talked to a salesman about buying a Saturn Sky, however;  (i) his offering price was ridiculous;  (ii) i have no idea if they'll be able to service the auto post-purchase;  (iii) don't know if the car will be sold again in 2010;  (iv) tried buying via the Internet, but no dealers contacted me, and;  (v) when I walked in the showroom, I was the only customer the entire time...the place was a ghost town.

(b) The same can be said for a Nissan dealership I visited recently,  No customers to be found.  I talked to the Finance Manager, and he offered to buy a 2010 Nissan 370Z model per my specs just so I could test drive it!  He said they had to buy later this month per their contract (they have to buy one of every model Nissan sells, every year per their contract).  Again, no customers could be found, except in the Service Department, where everyone is getting their autos repaired.

I got so frustrated, I'm probably just going to get my car repaired and delay purchasing a new one.

(3)  Last month, home foreclosures hit an all-time high.  It may happen again as moratoriums get lifted across various states.  Not sure if we  hit the bottom on that, but I imagine it's close because moratoriums usually results in pent-up bottoms.  I don't know of any forthcoming moratoriums.  Do you?

(4)  Median existing home prices fell to 170k last month, but they're 5k above the bottom so far.  How low can it go?  I dunno - we won't get new figures for another 20 days.  The reason I like this figure is because it shows a cumulative figure of wealth changes, whereas Consumer Confidence could be a bogus number.

- Vooch
www.ActiveValueTrader.com
By Vooch at 2009-06-05 00:27 | Stocks | login or register to post comments
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Darvos plus Mark-To-Fantasyland plus Spin-offs = Retail Investor Gets The Shaft Again!
On Tuesday, the existing median home price dropped 5k to 170k, which means USA citizens lost $500 Billion of wealth last month - equivalent to a year's worth of saving money.  Of course, this figure fluctuates from month-to-month - last month it was went from 165k to 175k, which mean USA citizens made $1 Trillion in wealth.  In any event, the trend is still down, which means there's probably more pain to come.
 
Also heard there's a 40-month supply of homes priced over $750k.  A guy with a 750k home has 5x the skin-in-the-game as a 150k home, and the oversupply of high-priced homes means there's more downward pressure forthcoming on that "existing median home price" we talk so much about here.

Recently, we also talked about how home foreclosures hit an all-time high last month, and unemployment is rising.

Also heard this week, that 12% of all US loans (of all types:  homes, autos, credit cards, etc.) are NOT current, which means they are in default.

U.S. Treasury Interest Rates have been skyrocketing over the past 10-or-so days, and it's probably for several reasons:  (1) recent U.K. credit talk;  (2) Bill Gross questioning U.S.-AAA rating;  (3) $1.8T debt, which needs to be financed, and;  (4) China no longer has an appetite to buy U.S. debt.

Recently, I've been looking to buy a new car.  While researching, I learned that Mitsubishi sold an AVERAGE of 10 cars last month per dealership.  How can any auto dealership survive by selling only 10 cars?

Now, take the reality above, and compare it with news articles.  Almost everyone is saying things are getting better.  The front page of today's local paper talked about how everyone's shopping...LOL.  Things are getting worse, imo.

===

OK...  let's talk about my topic, which is...
"Darvos, plus Mark-To-Fantasyland, plus Spin-offs = Retail Investor Gets The Shaft Again!"

If you recall, during the last Darvos Conference, it was George Soros who suggested the U.S. Banking System needs to separate the good part of the business from the bad part.  In his words, "Good Bank vs. Bad Bank".

Now, to get there, you've gotta do a few things, and I've been seeing this trend emerging, so pay close attention, and please tell me if I'm full of bullshit.

GOAL:  Separate good bank assets from bad bank assets, so you can flush the cancer out!

HOW DO WE DO IT?
(1)  We get Obama to stop talking about reality.  If you noticed in the earlier part of the year, Obama was telling the truth about the economy.  Today, we are getting a lot of misinformation.  I imagine somebody told him to shut up about the real news.

(2)  Next, we change the accounting rules for mark-to-market, and turn them back into mark-to-fantasyland, where companies are now allowed to cook the books again.  As you heard over the past quarter, banks are now allowed to get off the reality of mark-to-market, and use something else.  I call it mark-to-fantasyland.  I believe banks are going to start showing larger profits starting with July 1st earnings releases, because the rules changed in Q2 2009.

(3)  Raise cash.  These banks are raising cash.  Instead of going the normal route of secondary offerings, these banks are not wasting any time, and are selling their own stock on the open market at market prices.  Of course, when there's all this supposed-good news around, you might as well pump and dump while you can.

(4)  Spin-off the "bad company".  This is what I see is coming.  So far, #1-3 are already in place, but in this #4 item, we haven't seen it yet.  What I envision, is the final element in Soros' theory of separating the good from the bad, in order to purge the market, and that is by spinning-off the junk via a company spinning-off subcompanies.  Here, is where I see the unsuspecting retail investor getting the shaft again when they choose the wrong company.  These toxic assets are going to be folded into something people think can survive, but will ultimately fail because of reality.  I think the retail investor who buys these bad companies will take losses.

END RESULT:  NUMEROUS BANKRUPTCIES
I believe we'll start hearing about numerous bankruptcies in the news... so much, that it will be common to hear of 'em daily.

What do you think?


By Vooch at 2009-05-28 21:19 | Stocks | login or register to post comments
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Discussions about UNESCO and recent Bilderberg meetings
Discussions about UNESCO and recent Bilderberg meetings

UNESCO
======
First off, one of my friends returned from a two-week European vacation, and he was telling me about a visit (in France) to UNESCO - a building where people entered onto "international soil".  Unfortunately, I've never heard of UNESCO, so I'd like to get other

people's opinion (here) about them.  After googling tonight, I did find unesco.org, so keep your discussion beyond that.

The only time I've heard about "international soil" was from reading a book discussing what happens when you enter into the United Nations building in New York, USA.  Anyways, I find it interesting because of the constant conspiracy theories revolving around a New World Order (aka NWO).

My closest experience to "anything U.N." was over 20 years ago, when I was on United Nations Blvd. (New York), and the car I was riding in (not driving), was on fire, and guessing over fifty (50) NYFD firemen arrived to extinguish it - that's another story.

Anyways...let's get back on track...


BILDERBERG
==========
Over the past week, May 14-17, the ultra-elite (~130 people), comprising [1/3 USA, 2/3 non-USA people] and [2/3 business, 1/3 govt/media people], converged upon Greece to conduct private meetings in another annual Bilderberg meeting.  Participants are sworn to secrecy - a breach throws them out-of-the-club and untold retributions.

As an "Active Value Trader" (AVT'er), I seek to understand the markets properly.  In order to do this, it requires a significant amount of time, testing, and thought.

For me, the hardest thing about determining whether or not Bilderberg-material is tradeable, is establishing credibility, and so far, I'm having a hard time determining who is credible and even if the ideas are tradeable/investable.

After reading last week's news articles on http://news.google.com regarding the recent Bilderberg meetings, I've grown somewhat frustrated with methodologies employed by the few reporters attending the event.


(A)  CONSPIRACY THEORY
Bilderberg meetings are already front-loaded with tons of conspiracy theories because of the privacy, shroud of secrecy, and lack of national news coverage.  Key news media figures are invited to participate, but with the stipulation of privacy.

I believe most disgruntled humans/citizens believe in Conspiracy Theory because of:

(a)  Jealousy - People without wealth get jealous towards those who have wealth, therefore;  it's much easier for them to accept a conspiracy theory.

(b)  Lack of Education - Uneducated people accept conspiracy theories easily.

For me, I tend to be agnostic, as I do not really know the answe yet.  I also do not have any "skin-in-the-game", as I do not have a downstream of children.  However, I seek to understand the theories.  As an AVT'er, one goal is to determine how legitimate a Conspiracy Theory could be, or could not be.  I do this by peeling away at the onion (Conspiracy Theory), and finding out what to debunk as myth/falsehood, and what to accept as reality.



Bilderberg Pre-meeting notes revolved around this:

(a)  "According to Estulin’s sources, which have been proven highly accurate in the past, Bilderberg is divided on whether to put into motion, “Either a prolonged, agonizing depression that dooms the world to decades of stagnation, decline and poverty… or an intense-but-shorter depression that paves the way for a new sustainable economic world order, with less sovereignty but more efficiency.”

Post-meeting, Estulin says the latter was chosen (ie. "an intense-but-shorter depression").

As a side note, I (Vooch) also believe this is the case, which means I think we'll see another new bottom, unless inflation kicks-in beforehand.  So far, we haven't seen inflation, imo.

(b)  "According to Estulin, Bilderberg is assuming that U.S. unemployment figures will reach around 14% by the end of the year, almost doubling the current official figure of 8.1 per cent."

As a side note, I (Vooch) believe unemployment will keep growing through the end of this year, where U.S. Unemployment is higher on Dec. 31, 2009, than it is today (May 18, 2009).  U.S. Unemployment sits at 8.9% as of May 18, 2009.

(c)  "Estulin’s sources also tell him that Bilderberg will again attempt to push for the enactment of the Lisbon Treaty, a key centerpiece of the agenda to fully entrench a federal EU superstate, by forcing the Irish to vote again on the document in September/October despite having rejected it already, along with other European nations, in national referendums."

“One of their concerns is addressing and neutralizing the anti-Lisbon treaty movement called “Libertas” led by Declan Ganley. One of the Bilderberger planned moves is to use a whispering campaign in the US media suggested that Ganley is being funded by arms dealers in the US linked to the US military,” reports CFP."

As a side note, I'm not sure what the impact of this means.  Do you?


"The future of the US dollar and US economy: The plan is for the Bilderberg Group players, through their allies in Washington and Wall Street to continue to deceive millions of savers and investors who believe the hype about the supposed up-turn in the economy. They are about to be set up for massive losses and searing financial pain in the months ahead. The bank “stress tests” now being conducted by Washington are little more than a shameless hoax: Based on the irrational assumption that the economy won’t get as bad as it already is!"

As a side note, we've been discussing the hype since October 2008, when ActiveValueTrader.com went live.  Steven and I still believe the public is being bamboozled by public figures who tell us everything is OK now.  The economy is still going down the tubes, imo.



On May 18, 2009, one day after the Bilderberg event, we learn this:

"In a telephone interview, Estulin re-iterated his original points about Bilderberg’s 2009 agenda, which were released in a pre-meeting booklet to members. These include the notion that investors, whipped up into a false state of euphoria by the belief that the economy is recovering, are being suckered into ploughing their money back into the system as a set up for “massive losses and searing financial pain in the months ahead” as the stock market reverses its uptrend and plummets to new lows."

As a side note, I (Vooch) believes this mindset.

"Estulin called the “bank stress tests” recently conducted as being “little more than a shameless hoax based on the irrational assumption that the economy wont get as bad as it already is.”"

As a side note, I (Vooch) stated here on ActiveValueTrader.com, how I discussed how these bank stress tests were called, "feather tests", by industry participants.


(D) VAGUENESS AND INCONGRUITY

Incongrous, according to dictionary.com [http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/incongruous] means:  "Lacking in harmony;  incompatible; Not in agreement, as with principles; inconsistent; Not in keeping with what is correct, proper, or logical."

Again on this article, dated May 18, 2009 (a day after, the recent Bilderberg Meetings):
http://www.prisonplanet.com/bilderberg-fears-losing-control-in-chaos-plagued-world.html

"One of Bilderberg’s primary concerns according to Estulin is the danger that their zeal to reshape the world by engineering chaos in order to implement their long term agenda could cause the situation to spiral out of control and eventually lead to a scenario where Bilderberg and the global elite in general are overwhelmed by events and end up losing their control over the planet."

"Estulin said that the economic crisis is a vastly greater threat than a mere recession and that, as long as the present structure of the global economy remains the same, it will ultimately lead to a massive population reduction of two thirds within a generation or two."

This was a shocker to me, as I wondered how could a private discussion among elitists arrive at a decision about reducing worldwide population by two thirds within sixty (60) years.  I imagine, they could not arrive at the methodology, other than a Black Swan-type event, imo.

"Estulin said that such a massive crisis would bring many unknowns that “Scare and frighten some of the more savvy members of the Bilderberg inner circle who are wondering how far they have actually gone not only to destroy the world but perhaps even destroy themselves,” adding that this subject was a topic of conversation at this year’s meeting."

I will discuss "Scare Tactics" later in this article, briefly.

My problem with this whole article was the mixing of the past, present, and future statements!!!  I got so confused, because this article was dated, the day after the Bilderberg event, I wasn't sure when anything was said or conjectured.  To me, it was blended into one article, which is a major mistake on the reporter, imo.

The video, at the end of the article, referenced pre-meeting stuff.  The article referenced pre-meeting and post-meeting material, along with opinions - all intertwined.

Separating facts and opinion got confusing, especially when there's conjecture...


(E)  CONJECTURE AND "REPAINTING THE TAPE"

According to dictionary.com [http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/conjecture] , one definition of conjecture is "the formation or expression of an opinion or theory without sufficient evidence for proof".

Over the past few years, I've been a Casual Observer to Bilderberg events, wherein I didn't exercise much effort into following them.  However, after meeting some friends who also heard of the annual event, I began to pay more attention.


where we read of several, post hoc (after the fact), events, where Daniel Estulin or Jim Tucker (two predominant Bilderberg reporters) correctly predicted a $150/bbl peak oil price.

"Tucker's source said that Bilderberg were predicting $5 for a gallon of gas by the end of this summer and oil over $150 dollars a barrel, but that this was a ceiling and oil prices would probably begin to decline thereafter because they thought the acceleration had happened too quickly."


The article was dated June 10, 2008, which is probably about a month after last year's meeting.

However, as a casual Bilderberg observer, last year, I never picked-up on that story.  Therefore, I'm not sure if the story was legit, or if it was planted and posted with an old date, and a link telling of a news article written post hoc - after the fact.

Repainting the tape, is basically telling someone how you picked something at the bottom, then selling it at the top, but posting the facts in hindsight.

One reason why I bring up this conjecture argument is because of something I learned about Philosphy, and how it's important to add a healthy bit of skepticism to anything you read and/or learn.

A second and third reason for skepticism beyond simple conjecture are...


(F)  METHODS OF PERSUASION (SCARE TACTICS AND FEAR)

(a)  "Scare tactics" are one way to persuade an argument.  I learned this in a "Speech" class over 20 years ago.

... and ...


(G)  MOTIVE

(a)  Daniel Estulin makes money promoting his book:
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/10854

(b)  Jim Tucker - long-time outsider attendee, and I'm not sure of motive, other than perhaps ego.  I never looked into whether he has a newletter, or whatever.

(c)  Charlie Skelton - comedian reporter for guardian.co.uk.  During the first day at Bilderberg, he's ostracized by the prisonplanet.com group (aka Alex Jones) via negative credibility articles against him, then gains respect the next day, apparently because the police took him in for questioning.  All of Charlie's articles are full of retardation and confusion, imo.  Let me tell you how I really feel...  Charlie is a dumbass, imo.

(d)  Alex Jones (aka PrisonPlanet.com)

(i) DVD sales of "The Obama Deception" video;
(ii) Owns radio show and podcast;
(iii) Sells end-of-the-world crap (eg. seeds, survival gear, etc.) via ads;
(iv) Asks for $250,000 in donations by June 11, 2009 via:
http://infowars.com/moneybomb/

"Alex will use this money to build a studio, a sound stage, purchase cameras and equipment, computers, expand office space and hire additional staff. Alex hopes to launch a new television show on the Dish Network, thus reaching thousands, possibly millions of additional people and warn them of the nefarious plans of the global elite and the New World Order."

To me, this is ridiculous!

I imagine we'll get the full scoop of the Bilderberg meeting around that date (June 11, 2009), just like I discussed in the June 8, 2008 article earlier (my guess).

The monetary motives of discussing Bilderberg, seem to be highest with Alex Jones, imo.

(e)  Let me be perfectly clear.  I do not like the selling of an agenda, via persuasion, for monetary reasons.  I'll let you decide who is doing things right or wrong.


(H)  CONCLUSION

Please spend some time thinking about all of this, and give me your comments (good or bad) on the relevance.  I believe in seeking the truth, and discerning reality from imagination, so your comments are most welcome!

Separate facts from opinions, and then test the facts.

As a curiousity, I looked up the definition of "conspiracy" at dictionary.com, thinking I'd find "crackpots" or "incorrect

assumptions" within the definition, but I did not find that.  Instead, I found this:
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/conspiracy

Over the next month, I am sure we will read of articles about Bilderberg.  I'm assuming the waiters/servants at the event, will cough up some "stuff" when enough money gets thrown their way.  Discerning this "stuff" is what separates reality from imagination, and it's something we should pay attention to and determine if it's real.

Best Regards,


By Vooch at 2009-05-19 00:19 | Stocks | login or register to post comments
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PIZZA WAR! The Pizza Industry is in a World of Hurt...

I'm not sure if it's Little Ceasar's $5 Pizza's, Kraft's frozen pizzas, Domino's $5 deals, Pizza Huts $5.99 Lunch Buffett, a new chain which makes fresh pizzas for you to bake at home, or Wal-Mart's fresh-take-home pizzas.

Everywhere you look around...there's a Pizza War going on!

Last week, I was standing in an elevator waiting to go up the 7th floor where I work, and a Papa John's Pizza marketing guy was in the elevator with me. His job was to pass out advertising on all floors about a specials 50% OFF deal.

I asked him about the economy, and he said he couldn't believe how many floors in business buildings were vacant. That raised a red flag to me because while we've had above-average unemployment, and we've also had a below-average adjustment to real estate.

Anyways, these are all interesting things to keep in mind.

- Vooch
By Vooch at 2009-04-21 00:52 | Stocks | 1 comment
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