Suntzu's picture
Helicopter Ben to the Rescue

$100 bills came floating down from the sky today and everybody on Wall Street picked them up and indisciminately bought stocks with them. I'm sure it seemed like a great idea at the time. Usually, a crowd of people makes the best decisions ever, like our team just won a sports championship, let's riot.

This Bloomberg article tells the whole story blow by blow. It's quite a bit of reading, so I thought I'd just point out the really profound bits:

``Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said.

I'm not sure if this is wishful thinking or we are supposed to focus on the word "some" since foreclosures have doubled since last year. According to the Bloomberg article, the deepening recession in housing has been taking a toll on the broader economy and job growth has been slowing since June.

The credit crunch was caused by losses in securities tied to subprime mortgages.

Wow, these authors can some up the derivatives markets in one sentence when both George Soros and Warren Buffet have claimed that they can't understand them. Either this is an oversimplification, or they are more financially savvy than Soros and Buffet. Hmmmm.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the Fed move ``underscores the economic insecurity that middle-class Americans have long been feeling.'' The California Democrat said in a statement that she hopes the rate cut ``will bring some relief to the middle class.''

A lot of middle class people I know have been complaining that they can't roll over the commercial paper backing their off-balance sheet SPIV and it's really been cramping their style. I'm sure this will sort it all out.


These are my favourite two quotes from separate parts of the article:

Inflation has also receded.

crude oil climbed to a record and gold and copper surged.

Inflation has receded but the price of things is going up. This is double-plus-un-good. At least the article ended on a happy note:

``Lowering the funds rate overall doesn't boost housing,'' said Lee Hoskins, a former Cleveland Fed president and now senior fellow at the Pacific Research Institute in San Francisco. ``All this does is delay the day in which these wealth losses will finally be worked out in the marketplace, so I don't regard this as a particularly good move.''
My short positions may have taken a hit today, but at least I got a smile from BloombergSmile

SunTzu






This is the point

"A lot of middle class people I know have been complaining that they can't roll over the commercial paper backing their off-balance sheet SPIV and it's really been cramping their style. I'm sure this will sort it all out."

This is the most egregious part of the status quo. The Federal Reserve ostensibly acts for the entire American constituency while it furtively supports only Wall Street. Wall Street overextends in good times to make windfall profits with the tacit guarantee of indemnity should things turn bad, thanks to the Fed.

I don't appreciate footing the bill so the New York fat cats can eat caviar in Paris.

Re: inflation

You all keep talking about inflation but I just don't see it.  Unless you eat gold, nickel, uranium, iron ore, etc.  I know most of you are in Canada.  Here in Texas food prices keep going higher, but gasoline price is down (~$2.60/gallon), rents are stable (I pay the same since the beginning of last year), electricity is not much higher than a year ago, and so on.  Are things that bad in Canada?  If you see that much inflation in Canada, perhaps you should not be so bearish on the US dollar.

What is your impression of the Canadian dollar vs the US dollar in terms of purchase power parity (PPP)?  Are things in general cheaper in the U.S. than in Canada?  The Euro zone is ridiculously expensive in USD, and the U.K. even more expensive.  It is hard to make a long-term bet that the USD will continue to depreciate against those currencies.


Links to this week's news on PPI and CPI:

Consumer Prices Drop 0.1 Percent
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070919/economy.html?.v=13

August producer prices dip, home builders sag
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070918/3/3829d.html

RE(2): Inflation

I don't believe this CPI report at all.  I find it interesting how it coincides with a massive cut in interest rates.  They clearly did this on purpose to comfort the American public.

As for falling energy prices -- did the people writing that report miss the headlines about $80 oil?

Re: inflation

Theo,

When you read about energy in the CPI, think gasoline, not oil.  Does your car run on crude oil?

In this chart, the drop in gasoline prices from July to August is pretty evident.  Too bad that gasoline in Canada still costs $1 more per gallon than in the U.S.  If gas prices here were the same as in Europe it would be the end of suburbia.  The American way of life relies on cheap gas.

http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=24

Instead of the usual conspiracy theories of government manipulation of inflation indices and gold prices, would you consider that the lower PPI and CPI (oficially released today but probably known to the Fed earlier) were important factors in the Fed's decision to cut rates?

RE(4): inflation

I understand that CPI uses gasoline, not oil.  But I also understand that when oil goes up, gasoline will go up eventually as well.