Suntzu's picture
Beauty and the Geeks

If I had a Trillion Dollars... I still couldn't buy the five biggest companies on the Nasdaq. Here they are:



Mkt. Cap P/E


$Billion
Microsoft  MSFT 295.614 21.49
Google GOOG 210.536 52.69
Cisco CSCO 191.487 26.58
Apple AAPL 161.019 49.12
Intel INTC 155.708 26.38


1014.364 35.252

Thanks to a lot of people buying a lot of gadgets with the letter "i" in front of them, Apple just passed Intel in terms of market capitalization. Both Apple and Google added over $10 billion to their market caps this week. Sexy!

The poor old spinsters, Microsoft, Cisco and Intel, have boring old businesses and their P/E's reflect that. They're like the 30-somethings you see in the night clubs. They're trying very hard to be cool, but they are, like, sooo five minutes ago. They probably even wear sensible shoes. I guess that's why they have P/E ratios half of the high fliers.

I wonder when the first wrinkle will show up on the sexy crowd?

SunTzu


Google should buy Apple

I think Google should merge with Apple.  That would make things interesting giving Google an operating system.

In all seriousness, Apple's iPhone is the greatest PDA/phone I have ever tried.  And Google has a stranglehold on the Internet.  What will stop these two trains, who knows?  But excitement guaranteed.


Google will NOT buy Apple

It just doesn't make sense. Google gets its revenue from ads. The OS for Google is the Internet. It is not going to be tied to some proprietary hardware.

Apple, on the other hand, has most of its revenues from selling hardware and content. It doesn't make any money from ads nor does it want to.

Now, if you mix the two together, you get something completely incompatible. Like Ebay buying Skype - bad bad bad. HP buying Compaq made more sense because at least that was the same business model. The same products. It would make more sense for IBM to merge Apple, but then IBM is no longer in that business line anyway so no much either (ie. Lenovo). Apple is Apple.

If Google and Apple merge, that would be the end of both companies. Both business models would be out the door. And which one would they adopt? Microsoft's? That would make Microsoft's competition with Google/Apple MUCH easier.


What will stop these trains?

Their own gravity. It's a lot easier to grow quickly when your market cap is in the low billions than it is when you reach the hundred billions. It's hard for a $200 billion company to double quickly. Those multiples are high.

Re: Beauty and the Geeks

Google, Apple, Amazon and Research in Motion are some of the hottest momentum plays now.  Just like Cisco, Priceline, Oracle and many other were in the last 90s.  A lot the price gains in GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, RIMM are from multiple expansion, not earnings growth.

Nastaq top 5

One word about the value of those companies: *overvalued*

Microsoft and maybe Intel are the companies that are actually worth their valuations. Cisco is a little overvalued - a lot overvalued if the economy turns.

The other companies like Apple and Google are just hype hype hype.

The only company I could consider buying of these ones (if I actually owned anything on Nasdaq) would be Microsoft. Other "smaller" companies that would may be just as good are Oracle and IBM. Both will make oodles of $$$$. The only problem is USD, but that is another story.