GordonGekko's picture
New ideas and new weapons


Its time to change my mind models and weapons.What do I mean?
Behind every portfolio is a strategy and for different battle you have different strategy .

Lets have a look at Dorfman portfolio:

You can see it as :

1.list of independent stock picks
2.portfolio of 1 strategy-low ratios and high dividend yields
3.group of sector bets -army,steel,meat processing etc.
4.As  I said  in my previous posts with every stock pick you have 1 micro bet and 2 macro bets.

Dorfman is betting heavily on US economy and US dollar.

US economy-He chosed ONLY american companies that have earning from US.
US dollar- He choosed stocks listed ONLY on american stock exchanges .He could exchange his US dollars and buy shares listed on foreign exchanges.So his stocks will grow and he will get extra kick in currency appreciation.

Turkey
You have the same word for a country and for a bird! Its so funny!

There are several reasons reasons why Turkish economy will grow:

1.developing coutry,
2.high population- 71 million
3.reforms-independent central bank,inflation target,religion and goverment 2 different things,veils banned etc.
4.election results- this year they had elections and the party that DID all the reforms won again
5.they want to join EU and they will.Opinion about it is changing fast here in europe.
   Before they join they will have to change many other things-healt system,pension insurance system etc.This will
   appreciate their currency.

Lets say you decide, you want to bet on Turkey.So  you will buy turkish ETF.

There are many battles and many weapons how to play them.

War:       beating index with stocks ETFs
Battle:    iShares MSCI Turkey ETF
Weapon: listed in British pounds ITKY:LN
              listed in US dollars IDTK:LN
              listed in Euro IQQ5:GY
             
(Bloomberg symbols)

I placed bloomberg symbols because you can see there charts,you can adjust time period as well and its for free!
If you look at it its scary ITKY:LN is in pounds.

It is 54.34% up this year but hold on this is in pounds!!!! If you are american and you bought this british pound ETF your return would be  62% !

If you chosed to exchange USD to Turkish lira and buy turkish ETF in turkish lira your return would be 68 %.It doesnt sound much but wait in 5 years.

Warren Buffetts story
I will tell you this classic story but with different point of view.The story is about Warren Buffett how he in 4 hours picked several korean stocks and  made fortune on them!

Impressive, but in comparison with what? 4% return on DJIA or 30% average return of South korean index.Try EWY or iqqk:gy.

My point is compare your picks with similiar,sector,country,currency ETF.

To show it on example:
Lets say you put 60% of your portfolio into uranium stocks,30% into oil and gas stocks and 10% into gold and silver

You can take your uranium picks and can compare it to NLR.
Oil and gas stock picks and compare it to CLO:CA
Gold and silver pick and compare it to for SLV,GLD etc.

You know that Arnold Scheider is choosing low ratios,small capitalization stocks,you can compare him to IWN.
You know that value investors are betting heavily on financial sector so compare their financial picks to xlf,iyg,iyf

Not always but from time to time like in 2003-2004 there can be time for leveraged ETF known as ULTRA ETFs.
Look at UVT-leveragde russell value 2000,UYG-leveraged  financial sector.

PS:

JanHendrik-I think you made fantastic point about hedging & risk  I got some ideas about it from Sprott as well.
                 I will  try to post about it. 
Vooch- you or anyone else can reach me on my email: pelcmarek@yahoo.com, I will try to post something about
          my freak 1 stock style soon

Happy investing !