Suntzu's picture
Another Down Week

The American Markets

There was certainly no shortage of bad news last week. If it wasn't Intel (INTC) providing negative guidance and casting a shadow on tech stocks, it was Helicopter Ben pointing out the obvious, but unpleasant, fact that the U.S. economy isn't in the pink. Of course, the real story this week was the bond insurers being downgraded and losing heaps of green. Ambac (ABK) lost 71.47% of it's market cap this week. Ouch! MBIA's (MBI) 48% drubbing almost looks tame by comparison.

The major U.S. indexes reacted poorly and they all finished in the red. The Dow closed the week at 12,099 for a weekly loss of about 4%. The Dow has lost 8.66% for the year and is trading 7.7% below its' 50-day moving average and 9.5% below it's 200-day.

The Nasdaq 100 also lost about 4% on the week and 11.5% on the year to close at 1,844. It's now trading roughly 9.5% below its' 50-day and about 7.5% below its' 200-day.

The S&P 500 was the big loser for the week shedding 5.4% to finish at 1,325 down 9.74% for the year. That's 8.5% below its' 50-day moving average and 11% below its' 200-day.

The Canadian Markets

Not to be outdone, the TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) plummetted 6.5% on the week to finish at 12,737. It's down 8.25% for the year. While not as oversold as its' American counterparts, the TSX is trading about 6.3% below its' 50-day moving average and 7.8% below its' 200-day.

The gold and energy stocks decided to join the party. The S&P/TSX Energy Index (XEG.TO) got hammered for a 7.8% loss. Dropping oil prices and fears of a looming recession in the United States were the rumoured culprits. The S&P/TSX Gold Index (XGD.TO) also got creamed for a 7.4% loss on the week as bullion pulled back from its' recent highs.

The uranium stocks were particularly hard hit. Uranium One (UUU.TO) lost 13.7% for the week. The more speculative issues fell even further with Mega Uranium (MGA.TO) losing over 24% and Laramide (LAM.TO) giving up more than 25%. This could present some interesting entry points.

My Stokblogs Portfolio

I closed out my short position on the Nasdaq 100 (QID) this week. The Nasdaq 100 has fallen about 17.5% from its' October peak and about 14% over the last month. I don't believe for a second that the stock market is a one-way street. A bounce will come and present a better entry point later on.

On the long side, the uranium stocks mentioned above are looking cheap. Uranium One is down about 57% from its' April high. There might be one more shake out, but it seems most of the weak hands have left the stock. Mega and Laramide are both down 74% from their April highs. I like the uranium story and if the markets bounce, these should benefit. I'll probably take a position in a couple of these soon.

SunTzu


SunTzu: Brilliant article!

Thanks for your post.

Keep posting!

How can ABK be up?

Why? Why? Why is Ambac up? Why is BAC up? I hope they rally hard and give me another opportunity to bang them hard. The Fed cuts rate 75 bps because the futures take a dive? They have a dual mandate, it it doesn't include saving Wall Street. I've never heard of anything this shitty in my entire life.

Just send me the tax rebate check. It's going straight into the bank.

PS: Who the hell is buying the banks right now? If I absolutely had to make a play there, I'd jump on some of the USB preferred shares yielding 7.5 percent--the only safe thing in the entire industry.

RE: How can ABK be up?

I don't understand what's going on either.  Perhaps a short squeeze?  Why is MBIA up almost 50%?

Dead-cat bounce

Dead-cat bounce almost always seem to happen. People DO NOT look at the fundamentals of the stock. They just look at the chart and think they found a bottom. I know people like that. It take a lot of convincing that they are making a big mistake.

You may be right that the short squeeze is also contributing.

Bought UUU

I've been thinking about these uranium producers a lot lately. There is no relative strength for UUU, nor any apparent inflection point. Normally, I don't try to catch the falling knives (and this market will throw the babies out with the bathwater, if I might be sententious for a moment). Still, I like the fundamentals of the commodity and I like the producer.

On a whim, I called the pre-clearance number and got the ok. I took a small position at 6.37 per share.