Suntzu's picture
Faith or Heroin?

I had no idea the S in Ben S. Bernanke stood for Superman. Apparently, he can lift the entire American economy by making a speech. Of course, the bounce after the rate cut wasn't much of a surprise. It seems investors still have faith that Mr. Bernanke and his cohorts are in control.

I disagree. I do NOT think that the Federal Reserve can fix the imbalances resulting from a twenty year credit boom in a week with a couple of interest rate cuts and a bailout plan for the monolines. He is not MacGyver, the TV superstar who could fix a nuclear power plant with some gum and a paperclip.

The financials are still a mess and the American economy relies on the financials. Here is a great article outlining why George Soros and Julian Robertson do not like the financials. Perhaps the scariest bit in the article is the following quote:

According to the Federal Reserve Board website, U.S. non-borrowed bank reserves have gone from $37B to $199M (nope, that’s not a typo) in the last month.
An article in the Globe & Mail interviewing Satyajit Das goes so far as to say:

“There's only one way, in my view, you can be long financial institutions,” Mr. Cooney said. “You have to mainline heroin for breakfast. You'd have to be that delusional not to understand the risks.”

Unfortunately, not many people do understand the risks. The jury is still out as to whether they are actually on heroin. We will know when the drug tests come backWink

American Markets

All three major indexes finished in the black this week with the Nasdaq 100 lagging. Here is a summary:

  Nasdaq 100 S&P500

Dow

December 31, 2007
2,085 1,468 13,246
February 1, 2008
1,855 1,395 12,743
Week 3.69% 4.87% 4.39%
YTD -11.03% -4.97% -3.80%
 

 
50 day MA 1993 1429 12973
% over / under -6.92% -2.38% -1.77%
 

 
200 day MA 1,993 1,484 13,362
% over/under -6.92% -6.00% -4.63%


Two of the really hot areas to speculate this week were the monolines and the home builders. Ambac (ABK) gained a solid 14% on rumours it will be bailed out by a group of banks. According to the NY Times, things are looking so good at Ambac that cash bonuses were awarded management. MBIA (MBI) was up on similar rumours.The homebuilders as a group defied logic and rose in the face of a deepening housing slump. Although I suspect widespread heroin use, misplaced optimism and momentum traders are more likely culprits.

Canada

Taking its' cue from the American markets, the TSX was up 3.28% for the week. The financials led the rise with the energy and gold sectors following the price of oil and gold lower. Goldcorp (G.TO) announced it was selling its' stake in Silver Wheaton (SLW.TO) this week for about $1.5 billion. Although the company said it was to raise cash to develop existing deposits, I would not be surprised if they announced an acquisition or two in the upcoming months.

SunTzu


Monolines are a joke

When it comes to a bailout, I doubt anyone is trying to bail out the monolines. They just want to make sure their structured finance dream doesn't end. MBI and ABK are holding companies of the insurers. I haven't done any research on this (note well), but if the banks take the insurance business off of MBI and ABK's books, my guess is that the holding companies (ABK, MBI) will be left with nearly 0 revenue and a handfull of worthless subprime CDOs/ABSs. I'm not sure why anyone would invest unless the banks plan on paying more than those insurance subsidiaries are worth ($0). No one really wins here (maybe Buffett does) because, as I have written before, the banks will effectively be insuring themselves and the holding companies will lose their primary business. Everything still looks bad to me.

Someone please comment on this to confirm or correct my guess about the structure of monoline holding companies.

Monolines

Smtkr,

You have it bang on. MBI and ABK are holding companies and the insurance is done through subsidiaries. I think the key is the credit rating. Most of the banks do not have triple A and if they take over the insurance, the underlying debt gets downgraded. This leads to more write-offs and higher borrowing costs for the debt.

Something obscene like 75% of American corporate debt is rated as junk. They avoid the higher borrowing costs by having the debt insured. If the monolines get downgraded, corporate borrowing costs will rise and deal flow on Wall Street will shrink. I think this is what the banks want to avoid. That is just one man's opinion though.

SunTzu