Vooch's picture
eBay (EBAY). The World's Online Market Place

EBAY already wrote-off Skype in Q3 2007 for a -$0.69 loss.

2008 EPS estimated at $1.58, which is double what it was two years ago. In 2009, it goes up to $1.78.

If you look at ANY alternative to eBay (eg. Amazon, Overstock, uBid), they are all doing less than 1% of what eBay does, so none of them are a threat - they're all circle jerkin' themselves.

EBAY's power is in it's brand name and Network Effects. Many have tried to duplicate, but no one has been able to replicate their success.

The depressed stock price is because Meg Whitman sold off a lot of her shares, and the one-time -$0.69 charge last year.

13% of the stock is pure cash - and they have zero long-term debt.

Over the past 3 years, EBAY's Price/Book has fallen from 10:1 to 3:1, which means we're near the bottom. Ever hear of See's Candy? Buffett bought them when their Price/Book was 3:1.

And if you still think I'm dumb, take a look at all these famous Value Investors who paid more than I did recently:
http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=EBAY

As you see, there's nine of 'em buying millions of shares.

Not only that, EBAY's CFO bought the stock recently. Now, when does the CFO buy stock? When it's gonna go up.

People keep saying auctions are down and they're toast, but look at the revenue numbers - they are UP every year for the past 10 years. This stock will not stay down forever.

In fact, I bought more EBAY just now for $25.39/share as I am building this into a core position slowly.
I'm betting on consumers substituting by buying used items (EBAY) instead of new items (Amazon) to maintain their standard of living. We all know that Americans are not saving money right now, so they're gonna have to trade-down if they want to get above water again.

I've been buying some 'like new' books on EBAY. The prices are less than 40% of what Amazon charges.

- Vooch