pelcmarek's picture
JOSB: Can you explain it ?


Price of JOSB in 2003 was $19/share.            Price of JOSB in 2008 was $19/share.

Revenues in 2003 were 243.4.                      Revenues in 2008 are 604.
Stockholders equity in 2003 was 65.7            Stockholders equity in 2008 are 261.
Earnings per share in 2003  was  0.66           Earnings per share in 2008 are 2.72
Free cash flow in 2003 was 11.9                   Free cash flow in 2008 is 36

JOSB has no debt and almost same number of stocks.


Can you explain it ?

PS: This is not an exception there are many stocks like this one.


The reason

First in 2003, the price was 19 and in 2008 the price is presently 29.  However, the price peaked at 50 in 2003. 

The most common cause of this is a company that is growing very fast 50% rps and eps growth.  Looking back josb had this growth in 2003.  A few years before 2003 JOSB was a very small company.  Then, growth slows to 40%, 30%, 20% to 10% which it is today.  JOSB is just too large to grow 50% anymore.

Thus in 2003 the PE was 30, however it was justified with its 40% growth.  Today it is a 10% growth so you need about a 10 p/e.  Basically the stock was in a bad spot in 2003, had a high p/e in a spot where p/e was going to be lowering.  Put, that on top of a bear market, and the price makes perfect sense.

Buybackking


14/6/2007 JOSB hit 52 week high 45.
and
31/3/2008 JOSB hit 52-week low -18.81
and
5/9/2008 JOSB hit 30

I don't think 10% growth is appropriate with ROIC 20% , 0 dividend payout and hundreds of new shops planned.

You can try it here :

http://www.smartmoney.com/pricecheck/index.cfm?story=worksheet 

Even if you compare it with MW - JOSB's closest competitor it doesn't make much sense.

Anyway,I just don't think that healthy company can go from 45 to 18 then from 18 to 30 without any major news.

JOSB moves from P/E=7 to P/E=16.

That's crazy!

JOSB

JOSB MSN Money 10 year summary

People were scared of the falling rps and eps growth.  Although this stock is as reliable as a rock.  every year revenues and earnings have gone up.

Dead Men Don't Wear Plaid

People don't buy suits like they used to buy 'em.

In the old days, people wore suits to baseball games - now, it's to funerals and weddings.  If you're in the financial industry, you also wear a suit, but that industry is declining.

I used to own JOSB.  I liked it, but sold because the long-term prospects right now are not good.

My JOSB trades went like this:

2007-11-06 to 2007-12-27
52 days held
$26.48 to $27.73
+4.72% which was +33.13% annualized

2006-06-20 to 2006-06-21
2 days held
$22.29 to $24.35
+9.19% which was +1,677.18% annualized

- Vooch