I say "being able", because my experience has been when a merket busts out of a Bull or Bear market, it does so in a very big way.  This means, if we break out of the Bear Market this time, it'll be a substantial rise...guessing 150-250 points on the S&P500 from here.  I don't have my previous data handy, so I'm guessing here.

Today, I still think we're in a Bear market.  Here's why:

(1)  On Friday, we get new U.S. Unemployment numbers.  They are expected to get worse than the current 8.9% figure.

Recent dealership closings will trickle-down onto several industries in the future (eg. restaurants and retailers).  I was surprised to hear that Wal-Mart WMT is going to stop giving same-store-sales figures.  You know what that means?  It's going down, imo!

(2)  Recent GM-related bankruptcies will stifle any chances for auto sales growth.  I know firsthand, because I've been looking to buy a new car, but the uncertainties in today's climate prevent me from becoming a buyer for several reasons:

(a)  I talked to a salesman about buying a Saturn Sky, however;  (i) his offering price was ridiculous;  (ii) i have no idea if they'll be able to service the auto post-purchase;  (iii) don't know if the car will be sold again in 2010;  (iv) tried buying via the Internet, but no dealers contacted me, and;  (v) when I walked in the showroom, I was the only customer the entire time...the place was a ghost town.

(b) The same can be said for a Nissan dealership I visited recently,  No customers to be found.  I talked to the Finance Manager, and he offered to buy a 2010 Nissan 370Z model per my specs just so I could test drive it!  He said they had to buy later this month per their contract (they have to buy one of every model Nissan sells, every year per their contract).  Again, no customers could be found, except in the Service Department, where everyone is getting their autos repaired.

I got so frustrated, I'm probably just going to get my car repaired and delay purchasing a new one.

(3)  Last month, home foreclosures hit an all-time high.  It may happen again as moratoriums get lifted across various states.  Not sure if we  hit the bottom on that, but I imagine it's close because moratoriums usually results in pent-up bottoms.  I don't know of any forthcoming moratoriums.  Do you?

(4)  Median existing home prices fell to 170k last month, but they're 5k above the bottom so far.  How low can it go?  I dunno - we won't get new figures for another 20 days.  The reason I like this figure is because it shows a cumulative figure of wealth changes, whereas Consumer Confidence could be a bogus number.

- Vooch