YY's picture
Is silver the next gold?

While gold is being focused at this moment and gold stocks have appreciated in prices fantastically
silver has not performed as well. When I first thought of investing, silver was obviously my second choice than gold because we regard it as a metal that is avaliable plentifully compared to gold.
However, as Edgar Steele's mentions that unlike gold that stays on the earth due to its main use (as decorative) silver disappears as it is used for items such as electronics in addition to be useful in the medical field. Hence, silver will become much more rare and precious as time progresses and the demand increases as supply decreases.

John Embry of Sprott likes silver more than gold and on their recent report indicates that although "we love gold, we think that silver may possess considerably greater upside in the near term" (please read page 9 of their quarterly report for reasons).

I also came across some interesting information regarding the history of silver. I had thought that gold has always been more precious than silver throughout history; however, the Egyptians had loved it even more than gold. Silver was so rare that its value was twice more than gold at the time.

Silver has once gone from $4-$50 and now sits at around $12. The highest gold has gone to is $850
and now sits at over $600.


Here are some silver stocks that are on my list of candiates:
* these are exploration stocks, hence are speculative with a lot of risk
 and buy on weakness, sell on strength :)

1. Great Panther resources v.gpr
Silver is regarded to be best in mexico. The company recently became a producer with excellent grades, and are aiming to become one of the top 5 silver producers in the world. I believe they have a target production of over 3 million ounces of silver.

website: http://www.greatpanther.com/s/Home.asp
recent article: http://www.nrinvestor.com/SSIMPantherFaxAlert0605.pdf 

2. ECU Silver v.ecu
This is the fastest growing silver stock, appreciated over 1000% this year. They are once again located in Mexico and are consistently bringing out more news, more results. The only thing is that it is already relatively known. *was mentioned in the June issue of  Investor's Digest. Might buy it if it hits $2.00

website: http://www.ecu.ca/s/Home.asp

3. Mineras Andes v.mai

What makes this one unique is that they are located in Argentina unlike most other silver stocks.
Rob McEwen of Goldcorp holds approx 30% of the companies shares as he believes there are a lot of potential in the region. They will be drilling this summer. I just also found out that Argentina means silver
in their language. Still thinking about this one.

website: http://www.minandes.com/s/home.asp

4. Scorpio Mining v.spm

This stock is rather slow and I was concerned that the stock hasn't performed much in the last 2 years compared to the other juniors. However Irwin Micheal of abc funds believes in the company. He has it in his new dirt cheap fund and mentioned that they might be able to do something big. Other than that, the company has consistenty found high grade silver.

website: http://www.scorpiomining.com/s/Home.asp

5. Bear Creek mining

I was trying to buy this today as the Peru election ended but everyone thinks the same way and it went up. This is undervalued because of political risk. Peru has great potential for silver and their resource estimate is 250 milion ounces of silver! worldclass.  I am going to try to buy this again, hoping for it to go down. Silver Wheaton has purchased about 10% of the shares last summer.

website: http://www.bearcreekmining.com/s/Home.asp


At the current moment, I am more into gold than silver as the market is saying to buy gold. But there will be a lot of upside to silver in the near-term especially during the fall this year. If you like gold more than silver, please take a look at Aurelian resources (v.aru), there will probably be nothing like this stock for another while. I will add the link to the interview/article of geologist and founder of aru at the bottom since he is very smart and informative. I am not saying to buy this stock as it has gone up 2500% in a few months. They have 30 targets in Ecuador, and have only pulled 4 good holes. There will be much more drilling happening. I am going to buy a bit more if there is a dip. Other Ecuador plays are v.gml (CEO seems unreliable tho) and v.orr and v.cpp and v.nvt  which have gone up basically because of Aru's influence. I don't own any of them as I would rather buy more aru.... Please note, Ecuador has political risk. Happy Investing

*John Embry will be on robtv June 13th* -->he recommended aru under 0.55



Silver article: http://www.conspiracypenpal.com/columns/peak.htm
Sprott semi-annual report: http://www.sprott.com/pdf/reports/2006_Q1.pdf
Dr. Keith Barron interview: http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Barron.html
Dr. Keith Barron article: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/barron/052502.htm




Re: Silver Plays

Great post! You really like the juniors. They seem to have treated your portfolio well!
I have a question about MAI. Does Rob McEwan own shares personally, or is it through his company US gold?

Suntzu

Mai

Hi thanks for your post. Yes I only buy juniors as I have limited funds (I am a student) and because i like things with high risk-high returns. Yes I believe Rob McEwan has the shares personally. He had purchased an additional 1.2 million shares in the open market in March and now owns 14% of Mai.



McEwen has reported that he purchased 1.2 million shares in the market at C$1.10 per share, during March

oops

I made a mistake, he owns 30% now

Following his initial investment in Minera Andes four months ago, Mr. McEwen has increased his holdings to 30% of the company and is our largest shareholder.

blog post update

I just wanted to add (my account here is gone but I should add to this blog post)
that those numbers I posted on initially might be too low to buy any of these silver plays. They say August is the bottom, and there may be another correction, but I will be buying my silver plays soon as I've done very well with gold.

Scorpio Mining

Nice call on Scorpio Mining!  I was looking at it the other day and remembered your article here.


-theo

Resurrection of the dead post ;)

I just wanted to add this (since it is still true): The historical gold price/silver price ratio is less than a third of the current situation. If pricestrevert to the historical ratio, you are left with all upside for silver.

I've been looking into SNS.V lately. I'm still trying to make a decision, but it looks like a bright future.

Disclosure: I do not own the security mentioned above. I do not own silver. I own gold.

SNS Mud in the Hole

I have a small positon in SNS Silver. Neil Linder has hired a lot of talent from the Silver Valley area, who once worked for companies like Helca, Sunshine, etc. I had read their latest report on slough in the Hooper Tunnel. They estimate there is about a 100 feet of mire/mud to dredge. One of the principles has a past association with a mining contracting firm, Atlas-Faucet Contracting. This mire problem may be why the shares took a dive from 1.41 USD to 1.17 USD for the ordianries on OTC pink sheets. On the plus side this pretty much proved site that was not profitable to mine in the 90's.
Here are some other pluses:

1. Neil Linder was able to buy the property for about $600,000. This is a very good deal in comparison to a 15 million dollar sale of properties to US Silver Corp. But I may be talking appples and oranges here because the US Silver deal involves a larger amount of property.

2. Silver Wheaton has an 8 million dollarequity grub stake in the company. There no forward deals to buy Silver at reduced prices..

3. Even with the latest equity stake dilution, the shares outstanding are about 28 million. This compares favorably to other companies that have 100 million share floats for comparable stakes.

4. There is already a smelter operation operated by a Canadian company that is refining the US Silver concentrates. Perhaps this Canadian company would be amendable to taking in more work.

5. Most of the silver minied from the Crescent Mine owned by SNS was found using traditional exploration methods. Who knows how much could be found using the latest technologies?

Here are some downsides:

1. We really do not know how much slough is backed up in the Hooper tunnel. It could be much more than 100 feet.

2. Mines in this part of Idaho are liable to flooding and seepage from snow melt and aquifers.

3. SNS does not have a tailing pond. I don't know how hard it would be to get permission to build one. But in my opinion
the people of Idaho would really like to see more commerce and development, and I don't think it should be too hard to twist some arms, and slap some backs in a purely political sense.

I would like to add that I am only offering an educated opinion, and that this is a risky investment, and you could lose part or all of your money.

silver

Its ironic, I have none of the silver mentioned in this article :P Did Scorpio do something?
The best silver stocks right now are MAG silver (v.mag), and Sabina Silver (v.sbb). Unfortunelty, I dont own MAG which has been a superstar. I looked at it around $2 something and now its $9 (I think I saw someone holding it on the rankings on this page, so congrats)
I saw v.sns jumping too...I guess silver wheaton has lots of influence on investors :P


RE: silver

Yeah Scorpio went way up and I missed the boat on MAG too.  Agreed on Silver Wheaton having lots of influence on the juniors.


-theo

re:silver

Bearcreek has done very well due to Silver wheaton but recently its been sliding...I was wondering if it was because of the political risk down in SA? (Aurelian had gone down a lot because of the Ecuador election). I dont hold any more SA stuff (except for Andina in Chile) because I feel SA is becoming dangerous. It is pretty sad since a lot of the best finds are down there.

Embezzlement at Bear Creek Mining.

There was the small matter of $100,000 being converted by one of the employees. This might reflect badly on the stock if there is a question of transparency. I do not know how large this Enron effect should be.