Theo's picture
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) - Public Offering

Today Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) closed at $32.08, down 4.52%.  This was because of its public offering of 30 million shares.  Underwriter Deutsche Bank agreed to buy the stock at a purchase price of $31.85 per share and sell it at a public offering price of $32.15.  Chesapeake will raise about $1 billion from this offering and use the money to pay down debt.  The additional 30 million shares will dilute the existing shares by 6%.

The stock fell because of the dilution and because Deutsche Bank's offering price of $32.15 was well below yesterday's closing price of $33.60.  My opinion: Great!  I hope the stock falls further so I can buy more.  Over the past year CHK, on occasion, has fallen down to $27 or $29 and each time I kicked myself for not buying because it always goes back up above $30.

Trading tactics aside, I do think this is good news.  Usually when a company issues stock to pay down debt, I get squirmy.  But not in Chesapeake's case.  Chesapeake is a highly leveraged company - and always has been leveraged - with $5 billion in debt.  Over the years the company has made a fortune by borrowing to finance acquisitions of natural gas assets.  Judging by the massive growth of their sales, earnings, and reserves, the company is extremely good at what they do.  With this $1 billion cash infusion, the company will be well positioned to increase production and acquire more assets in the coming years.

And don't forget about the insiders.  Like I wrote in a previous article titled "Insider Pump and Dump", CEO Aubrey McClendon has the most to lose - and gain - from this transaction.  He owns around $900 million worth of shares.  So if you don't like the fact that CHK diluted your shares, think about the dilution Mr. McClendon is taking.  But obviously he is fine with it.  I'm assuming he sees major growth ahead.  One step back, two steps forward…




CHK's actions today...

I'm a fan of reducing debt, but selling stock at a discounted price doesn't seem to be rational. Why give up stock in any transaction when it equates to giving $1.20  on the $1 currently... W.E.B generally deals in cash unless the stock valuation is a dollar for dollar fair trade. I don't think the valuations at this price gives existing shareholders a fair shake.

In this scenrio, I feel it's a little bit much... to sell more stock in a company trading at a P/E of 7. With next year earning yield being 10%. Why couldn't they refinance the debt at a lower rate....

As you said, the CEO does have more to lose.. but, it makes me believe W.E.B when he says CEO are great managers, but not great asset allocators.

RE: CHK's actions today

Some good points.  In terms of total market cap, I don't think there was a discount.

Thursday's market cap:  436.87 million shares x $33.60 = $14.68 billion

New diluted market cap:  (436.87 million shares + 30 million shares) x $32.15 = $15 billion

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if it was 1 for 1 they should have paid:

$14.68 billion / (436.87 million shares + 30 million shares) = $31.44


But you raise some good points on the low P/E, high earnings yield, and refinancing debt at a lower rate.  I can only assume they are going to acquire more assets (have you seen how beaten down some natural gas companies are?  Check out Rockyview Energy Inc (RVE.TO) for starters).


-theo

Market cap adjustments...

Yeah, the market is pretty efficient at repricing to the same market cap. The thing that gets me is the fact, he's selling an asset which has a higher instrintic value than what the market is quoting.

For example, the industry P/E average for "competitors" on Yahoo is 14. CHK trading at 7 looks extremely cheap. If we even give CHK a minor upgrade in P/E of say... 9... that would equate to a price of $40.50... that's a 20% discount from this price.... 

I don't think a P/E of 9 is aggressive for CHK -- considering the earnings are fairly predictable.... it's locked in its gas sales prices... plus, it's generating huge cash flow.. so, it could service the debt itself.

Personally, I still hold CHK and expect it to go higher... So, congrats to my new fellow shareholders.. you got a great deal.... a really great deal. 

RE: Market cap adjustments

I agree the asset has a MUCH higher intrinsic value than what the market is quoting.  This is a tough situation because CHK doesn't have $40 billion in cash like Berkshire.  What else can they do to raise money?  I would alose like to congratulate my new fellow shareholders on the bargain they are getting.  Wink


-theo