- Look up each company's SEC 10-K report and search for the term "discounted future net cash flow". All oil drillers and producers calculate the future net cash flows of their proven reserves based on a standardized 10% annual discount formula.
- Divide it by the number of outstanding common shares.
- This tells you the future net cash flow per share only for proven reserves.
- Compare that with the current stock price to gauge how much of a premium or discount the market is placing on the company's future cash flows.
- Sometimes if the company has a lot of probable reserves, I might factor that into the calculation as well.
All of the following companies reported their reserve numbers at the end of December 2005 and therefore used the same oil and gas commodity prices for their discounted future net cash flow calculations. I highlighted numbers that were comparatively lower (potential bargain indicators)
| Symbol | Company | P/E | DFNCF (Mill) | Shares (Mill) | DFNCF /Share | Stock Price | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 9.20 | $84,287 | 2,180 | $38.66 | $72.73 | 88.11% |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | 6.80 | $53,948 | 1650 | $32.70 | $71.05 | 117.31% |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 9.00 | $25,593 | 841 | $30.43 | $49.13 | 61.46% |
| APA | Apache Corp | 7.90 | $24,528 | 329 | $74.46 | $66.68 | -10.45% |
| DVN | Devon Energy Corp | 9.50 | $23,574 | 442 | $53.33 | $68.11 | 27.70% |
| CNQ | Canadian Natural Resource | 9.70 | $21,373 | 538 | $39.77 | $51.99 | 30.74% |
| CHK | Chesapeake Energy Corporation | 6.60 | $15,967 | 436 | $36.55 | $29.80 | -18.47% |
| XEC | Cimarex Energy Co | 7.00 | $3,028 | 83 | $36.55 | $37.37 | 2.25% |
As you can see, XEC, APA, and CHK not only sell at a lower P/E than their peers, but the market is not placing a premium on their proven reserves. In fact, APA and CHK are selling at a discount to their future cash flows which screams value especially when their peers have a premium of at least 30%. Imagine what will happen if the price of oil or natural gas goes up...
Just for fun, the above table of stocks was generated from the energy holdings of some of the world's best investors listed on GuruFocus:
| CVX | David Dreman |
| COP | David Dreman, Warren Buffett |
| OXY | Charles de Vaulx, David Dreman, George Soros |
| APA | Charles de Vaulx, David Dreman |
| DVN | David Dreman, George Soros |
| CNQ | Bruce Berkowitz |
| CHK | David Dreman, Mason Hawkins |
| XEC | Marty Whitman |
The reason I used the guru energy holdings was to prove my point about all of energy being undervalued. Value investors each have their own way of analyzing value in stocks. True all of those stocks have single-digit P/Es and high growth in common, but the gurus picked their individual holdings based on other merits no doubt. Personally, I like using the discounted cash flow analysis.
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
| 2006-12-24-Discounted_Cash_Flows.xls | 16.5 KB |


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