Theo's picture
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is a crazy screaming buy!

I read the Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) quarterly report last week and it continues to boggle my mind why the market is ignoring this stock.  One year ago I thought it was a major bargain and now it is just a ridiculous screaming buy.

Despite low oil and gas prices, the company continues to make a giant profit.  Their sales for the quarter nearly doubled from $1.08 billion to $1.9 billion.  Their earnings more than doubled from $0.46 per share to $1.25 per share.  And their reserves?  Two weeks ago I reported 2005 proven reserves of 7.521 tcfe.  Now their proven reserves are at 8.433 tcfe!  For the 7.521 tcfe number, their future discounted cash flow per share was expected to be $36.55.  Already that's 23% more than the current share price of $28.  But according to their quarterly report, they have an additional 16.4 tcfe of risked unproved reserves!  To be conservative, if we divide that in half and use the same 2005 numbers, they could have an additional $39.84 of future cash flows in reserves.  That totals to $76.39 in future discounted cash flow per share.

The stock has to at least double!  Either gas prices are going to go up, bad weather is going to hit, or the company will be acquired.  There is no way the market can continue to undervalue the stock like this.

Also, CEO Aubrey McClendon just bought another $9 million of stock announced today.   Plus a whole whack of other insiders purchased stock as well.  In light of all this, I disposed of a less sure stock in Westaff Inc (WSTF) to added to my Chesapeake holdings today.



Chesapeake

May I ask what gas prices you use to value Chesapeake?

Gas is now below $6.20/MMBtu in what is supposed to be the coldest time of the year, the time with the highest prices.  It was $15/MMBtu about a year ago.  Expect to see prices of $5 and lower for the shoulder months of 2007.  I saw that the Prudential analyst is estimating an average price of $6.50 (Henry Hub) for 2007, that still appears high.

The report used $56.41 per

The report used $56.41 per barrel of oil and $8.76 per mcf of gas.  I believe the mcf and MMBtu conversion is roughly the same.  Even if prices go down to $3 the stock is still undervalued.


-theo

$8.76 per mcf of gas

They're locked into contracts/futures in gas... so, it should be stable $8.76 for the coming years. I don't have the report in front of me. But, even at $6.20 their earnings are not directly affected by the downturn.

Insider buys??

Chesapeake Energy Grants CEO Stock Valued At $9.46M >CHK
12:17 PM EST January 5, 2007


DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) has granted Chairman and Chief Executive Aubrey K. McClendon a stock award valued at about $9.46 million, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday.

The Oklahoma City natural-gas producer granted McClendon 340,000 common shares at $27.83 each on Wednesday, bringing his holding to more than 27 million shares, the filing said.

Chesapeake Energy shares recently traded at $27.67 each, down 5 cents.

RE: Insider Buys??

You are right!  I don't like how that showed up on the Edgar filings with no footnote or mentioning of the grant whatsoever.  To me, it just looked like a normal market purchase.


-theo

Good Website for Insider Trading

I'm not sure where this website was posted, but I am pretty sure it was posted on this site.  Thank You for whoever posted it, but it has very useful information regarding to the type of transaction that was placed minus the "Phantom Stock".  I use form4oracle to see if it was a market purchase or sale and then go to edgar filings to see if it was a phantom stock purchase or not.

www.form4oracle.com

Very good website that lists what type of transaction was placed.

Happy Trading Everyone!

RE: form4oracle

Do you pay for this?


-theo

I use that site freely

I do not pay for www.form4oracle.com although you can for some of the services that they do offer.  I use the site merely to see if an individual security has been bought by an insider through a market purchase or through other means such as grants etc...  The clean format of the site is what appeals to me.