Theo's picture
Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT) - An 'Inevitable' Sold

Warren Buffett calls Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT) an 'inevitable' and that is why he, and many other value investors such as Joel Greentblatt, Wally Weitz, Tweedy Browne, and Bill Nygren - to name a few - are invested in Wal-Mart.  I too believe Wal-Mart is an inevitable - a company that will continue to thrive for years to come.  Until recently I owned the stock, but sold out the other day.  (I made just enough to cover the transaction fees and a nice dinner.)
 
My original thesis still stands however: Wal-Mart is a great stock and by far one of the safest out there.  I don't think you can go wrong.  In fact, I am positive on that.  Wal-Mart is a much better alternative to holding cash and, at historical low multiples (P/E, Price/Book, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow), the stock is cheap.  The street seems to have forgotten that Wal-Mart is still a growth company.  Let's look at the Income Statement for verification:

Wal-Mart Income Statement


The Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement are just as good.  The company continues to buy back shares every year and use excess cash to open new stores.  The Walton Family also still owns an incredible 40% of the company ($80 billion!).  Now check out the chart:

Wal-Mart Chart


The above chart shows a concept that a fellow StokBlogs member, schin, introduced me to: Coiled String Theory.  The idea is that earnings accumulate and makes the balance sheet strong while the stock price comes down.  Quality goes up, price comes down (a value investor's dream).  Wal-Mart has been growing earnings and book value every year for the past five years yet the stock price has fallen and now flat-lined.  Eventually, the market will come to its senses and the "string will get sprung".

Anyhow, that is my case for why I bought the stock.  You probably care more about why I sold, however.  Well, readers of my blog will know that I have extremely strong convictions right now about the US Dollar falling, the economy heading into a recession, and the price of oil shooting up into the stratosphere.  Like Wal-Mart stock, I also consider those events an 'inevitable'.  It is just a matter of time.  The only antidote to those events is to own assets that will inflate along with the economy.  Energy and gold stocks are the best of those assets.

Like I said above, Wal-Mart is also better than cash because it is a rock-solid company.  Sure retailer stocks will get hit during poor economic times, but people will continue to shop where there is value - and anybody who has ever walked into a Wal-Mart knows they give their customers the best value.  So the stock should do fine.  But oil and gold will do even better in my opinion.  As an investor, I must stick to my best ideas.  If I could not find any gold or oil stocks worth owning, I would still be holding Wal-Mart.  But I have found more opportunities than I have cash for.  And so my portfolio is now heavily concentrated in those sectors.  Tomorrow I will follow this article up with my thoughts on Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD), which is the main stock I traded Wal-Mart for.
 



Re: Wal-Mart etc.

I totally agree with you on Wal-Mart.  It's the bargain of the decade, people will look back a few years from now and ask themselves 'Why did I not buy it?'

Have you read what Arnold van den Berg (Century Management) said about Wal-Mart?  It's worth reading.

On EPD: I think master pipeline limited partnerships are awesome investments for the long run, for their high yield and some capital appreciation.  But I avoided them because if you are a U.S. resident your tax return becomes a nightmare.  They are partnerships, not corporations.  Around February your broker will send you a K-1 form, not a 1099.  You will have to include the partnership's earnings in your federal return, and do the same for each state where the MLP does business (provided your allocation of the MLP's earnings in the state is above a minimum exemption amount).

How do the MLP taxes work for non U.S. residents?  Do you pay any taxes?

Just from a high-level look, Teppco (TPP) seemed more attractive than EPD in terms of valuation. What do you think?

RE: Arnold van den Berg

That was a great article, thanks Bruno.  Art gave a monster endorsement for Wal-Mart stock:

We never bet our life on one stock.  But if we had to, Wal-Mart would be it.

His case for owning Wal-Mart is pretty air-tight.  He was totally right about Microsoft (MSFT) too, which is up nearly 50% in the past year.  Microsoft was in the same "coiled string" situation as Wal-Mart is now.

RE: EPD and MLP taxes
I will have to look into the tax situation.  Ususually we just have a "foreign income" section where we pay taxes on.

RE: Teppco (TPP)
I agree, it's a good deal too.


-theo

WMT trades at a next year PE

WMT trades at a next year PE of 15. What are your growth expectations fot the long term?
In fact, WMT just moved out of Germany (the country I reside in), since they apparently did not find it easy to compete against local chains. International growth seems to be some kind of an issue for WMT...

Jan

Re: Wal-Mart P/E

I won't pretend I can predict Wal-Mart earnings any better than the market consensus.  The company should grow same-store sales by 2-3%, plus ~7% from new store openings.  Their earnings should grow at least as fast as revenues, because of store remodellings and higher mix of private label products.

Bruno,I agree on same-store

Bruno,

I agree on same-store sales of 3%.
Walmart appears to be a company that is fairly easy to predict. Nevertheless, investors should ask for some margin of safety. Maybe there are anti-trust issues coming up or politicians try to gain on Walmart's cost (literally).

The most significant issue is store growth. 7% p.a. do not sound ambitious, however THEY ARE for a company of WMT's size. My recommendation of a DCF (if I may) is:

+6%  earnings yield (little less than 15 PE, since WMT has WC expenses and excess Capex)

+3%  yoy LT- SSS

+4%  yoy LT- store growth
_________________________________
13%  yield

One has to evaluate whether 13% is a sufficient possible return. Keep in mind that these numbers all DO NOT INCLUDE RISK. If something goes wrong, investors won't get their 13% , of course.

Regards,

Jan

Wal-Mart Growth

I haven't really done much of a "growth projection" either.  True Wal-Mart had problems in Germany and China as well,  but there is still lots of room to grow in Canada and other parts of the world.  My best guess is that Wal-Mart maintains its historic 10% growth every year.  The margin of safety is in the Wal-Mart brand more than anything.  Nobody has a distribution system that can match theirs.  And nobody can sell for less.  If you were to try and compete against Wal-Mart in the discount retailing business, you would get creamed.  I'd say all that is worth more than a P/E of 15.

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