Vooch's picture
ValueInvestorClub.com and Wal-Mart (WMT)

I sent in an application to ValueInvestorClub.com last week.  I've visited the site for a couple years, but never had the desire to fill-out their troublesome application for membership.

I got bored one night and figured I might as well blow my time filling out their application.

They say they only accept 250 members and I think I know 2 of them:  StokBlog's JanHendrick and Mohnish Pabrai.  JanHendrick could attest to whether or not they have 250 or more.

I imagine they probably get a ton of applications.  I'm sure a lot apply for the simple mistique of it.

Anyways, I wasn't sure what they were looking for, so I picked out what I would call one of my safest plays:  Wal-Mart (WMT) and wrote down a couple notes.  I didn't get fancy with EBITA, show them charts, trajectories, DCF, or provide a very verbose explanation of the next greatest widget.  Instead, I stuck to simple explanations generated from about 77 or so data points I look at when reviewing a company.  This is sort of the synopsis of all that data.

Since I had Notepad open with the notes for my applciation, I thought I'd share it with you if you're interested.

Whether my application is crap or not, I do not know.  If I got accepted, I may not even know since I go through my email rather quickly (deleting spam left and right).  I'm not sure who sends their email or what the subject line of a winning entry would even look like.  They told me it would take weeks or months before they got the time to review my application.  Chances are, I will forget by then.  In the end, my chances of getting in seem to be zero.

Anyways, I just wanted to share with you what I told them.  Here it is:

Wal-Mart (WMT):

- Book value has grown almost 200% over the past 10 years
- Book value has increased 9 out of the past 10 years
- Earnings Per Share has grown over 200% the past 10 years
- Earnings Per Share has grown EVERY year the past 10 years (even through the 2000-2002 bear market).
- Dividends have increased over 300% the past 10 years
- Dividends have risen EVERY year the past 10 years
- The stock price has gone up 100% the past 10 years, even though it's been stagnant for so long
- The stock price has had severe PE multiple compression the past 10 years, hence the stagnant stock price the past 5 years
- The company can get out of debt within 2 years if it had to get out of debt.
- The Return on Equity exceeded 19.8% per year the past 10 years
- The company is the low-cost provider in the industry. It's distribution network capability is extraordinary.
- The PE ratio has been trading at historic lows recently
- Warren Buffett owns some WMT
- Apathy has set into the stock
- WMT reduced capex spending which means profits will rise soon
- WMT management focused on higher ROE items (they are going after the best paybacks first)
- My intrisic value is ~$100/share, so I see a huge Margin of Safety with this stock
- Price-Sales ratio is low:  0.55
- WMT trading at historic P/E lows
- Earnings CAGR is 15.16% over 5 years and 17.37% over 10 years
- $15 Billion dollar stock buyback in the works
- China growth is a catalyst for this stock since it's already embedded in that country
- Since this is an international company, it is not fully-tied to the dollar, hence a slight hedge against the USD.

All stock buybacks do not work. Stock buybacks work when the economically advantageous to do it - this is the time for WMT.

- Vooch



Vooch,unfortunately, I am

Vooch,

unfortunately, I am not a full-time member yet. Nevertheless, I do use the "guest" access very frequently and I know one member quite well.

Indeed, I am working on an application and I recommend everyone to think about what you write. Make it "special"...

Good luck to you Vooch! Let us know, when you are in.....my goal is to maybe become a member later this year or beginning of next year.

Best,

Jan

Jan,Thank you for the kind

Jan,

Thank you for the kind comments.

It's hard to determine what "special" means there, especially since I'm not even sure if they're really accepting new members now.  Their website gives that impression, but the design is so outdated (and unchanged) it makes me think nobody is running the website.

As time goes on, and my research continues, I keep noticing there's very few changes I should be making to my portfolio.  Lately, when I go searching for new opportunities, I come up with nothing special.

Lately, it seems I tend to trade within my portfolio (moving cash between stocks I already own).  This seems to tell me to stop looking at stuff and wait for the next correction, but as you know, my prior market shorts keep getting knocked out by continued thirst (higher prices) for stocks.

Because of this, I seem to be taking more of a break from stock research and doing other projects I'm working on.

Anyways, good luck to you on getting inside!

- Vooch

Vooch,thanks a lot for your

Vooch,

thanks a lot for your response!
Albeit an outdated design, there is somebody running the page. In fact, they need to put quite some time into screening etc. . Moreover, there are still 1-2 ideas posted every day and they are mostly JUST GREAT. Good writeups, sometimes amazing investment ideas. The point is that you need to "prove" your skills securties analysis. The creators of the platform appreciate every input regarding liquidations, merger abitrage etc., however that does not show whether you can really tore apart a cash flow statement.

Moreover, members get kicked out when they:

a) do not contribute
b) do not write quality articles

There is always some kind of churn...old members get replaced by new applicants.

Jan

P.S.: write to janhendrik.mohr@gmx.de so I can send you my personal "top list" of all writeups I have seen on the page.