GordonGekko's picture
Low-risk, high-uncertainty investment opportunities.


Cryptologic (CRYP)

Company has value 100. 70% of its income comes from Europe and Asia. 30% of its income comes from USA.One day income from USA is cut off and company losses not 30% of its value,but 60%.(Now the value is 40 instead of 70 ).The best thing is the fastest growing part wasn't USA but is Asia.

Harvest Natural Resources (HNR)

2 scenarios:

1.Goverment will take the whole company,BUT will have to pay for it - he did it in every case in the past + has to pay according to international law.Price that will goverment pay = price of HNR stock.

2.Goverment will take just part - lets say 30% of the company,shares go 60% down.

In realty scenario 2 happened and Mohnish has doubled his bet. 


Delta financial (DFC)

Company Subprime buys industrial plots to resell these plots.Company pays deposit and takes mortgage to buy these plots.

If buyers of industrial plots decide not to buy these plots anymore and are returning plots they bought, company Subprime goes bankrupt.

Company Delta buys apartments to get monthly rental income.Company Delta has guaranteed 1.5 year tenancy contract.Company pays deposit and takes mortgage to buy these apartments.Company Delta has a buyer for each of their apartments for price they paid,but lowered for their deposit .Deposit paid by Delta is lower than income from 18 months rent.

If buyers of apartments decide not to buy apartments -  company Delta doesn't care has monthly income. 
If company Delta sells its apartment after 1.5 year then doesn't lose anything.(price sold=[price paid - deposit] + rent received).
If the buyer of Delta apartments decides he wants to return apartments he bought.He can't claim anything on Delta,but has to claim it on developer. 

Because of the company Subprime's bankruptcy , company Delta lost 60% of its value.

PS: I'll add  FFH ,CCRT and TX soon.


RE: Low-risk

pelcmarek:

Why aren't you going to add to DFC if it is the most beaten down stock?


-theo

Oil ,natural gas & weather forecast


My naked puts will add DFC stocks automatically on my real account, here on stokblogs I still need to recover from CMZ losses. I have no spare cash here on stokblogs.

It reminds me:What weather did you have in Vancouver this year?

The guys in CMZ are complaining that they couldn't work because of bad wheather for drilling!!! Just wondering if any other company had the same problem. (CMZ is located in Alberta)

Anyone agrees with this oil & natural gas forecast?

Projected benchmark oil prices of $64 per barrel in 2007, $57 in 2008, $46 in 2009, $46 in 2010, and $47 in 2011 and natural-gas prices of $7.80 per thousand cubic feet in 2007, $7.60 in 2008, $7.10 in 2009, $7.20 in 2010, and $7.40 in 2011