From Bloomberg:

Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, spoke at a seminar in Beijing on April 26 about the outlook for growth in China, commodity markets, and his investment strategy for Chinese stocks. Rogers said he is buying Chinese shares, among the world's worst performers this year, as the market has bottomed, and he's focusing on agriculture, tourism, airlines and education.

A Fortune interview with Jim Rogers:

You might expect Jim Rogers to be gloating a little bit. After all, the famed investor has been predicting a recession in the U.S. economy for months and shorting the shares of now-tanking Wall Street investment banks for even longer. And with fears of a recession sparking both a worldwide market sell-off and emergency action from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, Rogers again looks prescient - just as he has over the past few years as the China-driven commodities boom he predicted almost a decade ago began kicked into high gear. But when I reached him by phone in Singapore the other day there was little hint of celebration in his voice. Instead, he took a serious tone.

"I'm extremely worried," he says. "I have been for a while, but I just see things getting much worse this time around than I expected." To Rogers, a longtime Fed critic, Bernanke's decision to ride to the market's rescue with a 75-basis-point cut in the Fed's benchmark rate only a week before its scheduled meeting (at which time they cut it another 50 basis points) is the latest sign that the central bank isn't willing to provide the fiscal discipline that he thinks the economy desperately needs.

"Conceivably we could have just had recession, hard times, sliding dollar, inflation, etc., but I'm afraid it's going to be much worse," he says. "Bernanke is printing huge amounts of money. He's out of control and the Fed is out of control. We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we've had since the Second World War. It's not a good scene."

Rogers looks at the Fed's willingness to add liquidity to an already inflationary environment and sees the history of the 1970s repeating itself. Does that mean stagflation? "It is a real danger and, in fact, a probability."

Most notable was how he does not think a recession in the U.S. will affect China:

"I'm delighted to see what's happening in Shanghai and Hong Kong," he says. "As I've said, if things hadn't cooled off, the Chinese market was in danger of turning into a bubble. I find this most encouraging. The government's been doing its best to try and cool things off. Mainly they've been trying to deal with real estate but it's having an effect on stocks, too. I would suspect the correction isn't quite over in China. But I'm gearing up. I didn't put in any orders for tomorrow but I'm starting to prepare my list of things to buy in China. Whether I buy this week or this month or this quarter, who knows. But I'm starting to think about buying new shares in China for the first time in a while. And I'm not thinking about buying in America."

Ultimately, Rogers doesn't think that the troubles in the United States will be much of a drag on the prospects for the People's Republic. "Anybody who sells to Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500) or Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) is going to be affected, without question," he says. "Some parts of the Chinese economy are going to be untouched, however. They won't even know America's in recession. They won't care if America falls off the face of the earth."

On commodities and what to buy:

What's on his China buying list? Rogers says it will depend in large part on which stocks come down to the right level, but he's keeping his eye on certain high-growth sectors including tourism, agriculture, power generation and airlines.

The pullback in commodity prices on recession fears hasn't dampened his enthusiasm for resources investments, either. More like a cyclical correction in the middle of a long-term bull market. "Certainly some commodities are going to be affected," says Rogers. "But it's not as if the markets haven't figured this out. Remember the old expression: 'Dr. Copper is the best economist in the world.' Well, Dr. Nickel and Dr. Zinc figured out a few months ago what I thought I had figured out, that we were going to have a recession. Nickel is already down 50%. Other commodities may fall more. But I don't see the economics of agriculture being much affected at all. Maybe there will be a few less cotton shirts bought. Maybe there will be a few less tires bought. But the supply is under more duress than the demand."

Once again Rogers draws on the 1970s in his analysis. "Think about the story of gold in the '70s," he says. "Gold went up 600%, and then it started correcting. It went down nearly every month for two years, nearly 50% from the high point. And everybody said, 'Well, that's the end of the gold market. It was just a fluke. It's over.' It scared everybody out. And then gold turned around and went up 850% from that level. This is what happens in markets. But the fundamentals of the secular bull market in commodities are not over any more now than they were for gold in the '70s."

Where he expects the pain to be most intense is on Wall Street. He says he hasn't covered his short positions on the investment banks or Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and won't for a while. "Those things are going to go way, way, way down," says Rogers. "The investment banks are down now because of the problems in the credit market. Wait until the effects of the bear market come along. If you just go back and look at other bear markets, investment bank stocks have gone down enormously. We haven't gotten to that stage yet. It's going to bring their balance sheets under duress. This is going to get much worse. But that's where there have been excesses for the past decade or so. And whenever you have a bear market come along the great excesses of the previous period are the ones that get cleaned out the most."

In 2002 price of BRK-A was 91 060 EUR.
In 2007 price of BRK-A    is 92 480 EUR.

Lets say, you bought in 2006 Jim Rogers Commodity Index Fund. (M9SA), you made 15% return on it, then you made 15% on EUR appreciation and because you believed there is commodity trend you took 15% leverage. What will be your USD return?

Jim Rogers Commodity index increased 15%
Eur appreciated 15%
leverage 15%

Your USD return will be 52% p.a. (1.15*1.15*1.15)

Here is list of all european ETFs that are traded in euros.(XTF)

Here you can see their chart (just type in their xetra symbol)
http://boerse-frankfurt.com

PS:I'm a moron too. I found it out too late.

Jim Rogers not only made shocking statements, but he is backing them up with huge personal financial action:

"I'm in the process of -- I hope in the next few months -- getting all of my assets out of U.S. dollars," said Rogers, 65, who correctly predicted the commodities rally in 1999. "I'm that pessimistic about what's happening in the U.S."

Rogers, delivering a presentation late yesterday at an investors' meeting organized by ABN Amro Markets in Amsterdam, said he expects the Chinese currency to quadruple in the next decade and that he is holding on to commodities such as platinum, gold, silver and palladium.

Strong predictions for the Yuan:

"The U.S. dollar is and has been the world's reserve currency, the world's medium of exchange," he said. "That's in the process of changing. The pound sterling, which used to be the world's reserve currency, lost 80 percent of its value, top to bottom, as it went through the whole period of losing its status as the world's reserve currency."

The Chinese currency, known as the renminbi, or yuan, is "the best currency to buy right now," Rogers said. "I don't see how one can really lose on the renminbi in the next decade or so. It's gotta go. It's gotta triple. It's gotta quadruple."

Although bull market for bonds and stocks are over, the commodities bull has a long ways to go:

The bull markets in bonds and stocks are "over," he said. "Bonds will be a terrible place to be for many years and will in fact be going down for many years."

Rogers said he remains bullish on commodities because "that's where the big fortunes are going to be made in the world in the next five, or 10 or 15 years. The current bull market is going to last until sometime between 2014 and 2022."

Still super-bullish on agriculture:

"The number of hectares devoted to wheat farming has been declining for 30 years, the inventory levels of food are at the lowest level since 1972," Rogers said. "Suppose we start having droughts again. God knows how high the price of agriculture is going to go, so that's where I'm putting more of my money now than in other things."

He added, "I think I'm going to make more money in agriculture than I make in precious metals."

A little pre-Fed commentary from two investing legends:

Interest rate cuts by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will spur inflation, cause the U.S. dollar to collapse and help push the world's largest economy into recession, investors Jim Rogers and Marc Faber said.

"Every time the Fed turns around to save its friends on Wall Street, it makes the situation worse," Rogers said in an interview from Shanghai. "If Bernanke starts running those printing presses even faster than he's doing already, yes we are going to have a serious recession. The dollar's going to collapse, the bond market's going to collapse. There's going to be a lot of problems in the U.S."

What they think the Fed should do:

Faber and Rogers said the Fed should raise interest rates to quell inflation and support the U.S. currency.

"The cause of the problems we have today, they are due to artificially low interest rates, expansionary monetary policies and extremely rapid credit growth that was fueled by a totally irresponsible Fed," said Faber, who oversees about $300 million as managing director of Hong Kong-based investment advisory company Marc Faber Ltd. "It's suicidal to cut interest rates."

'Stop Inflation'

"They should do something to stop inflation as soon as they can," said Rogers, the 64-year-old chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. "If you don't do something now, if you don't nip it in the bud, it gets much worse down the road."

Where Rogers and Faber are putting their money:

Rogers, who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999, said investors should sell U.S. dollars and bonds. He said he's selling short shares of investment banks and expects them to fall further. The Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index has declined 7.2 percent this year, compared with a 4.1 percent gain for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Short selling is the sale of stock borrowed from shareholders in the hope of profiting by repurchasing the securities later at a lower price.

Rogers said he is buying agricultural commodities and recommended investors purchase Asian currencies including the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen.

Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said he is buying gold.

'Ballistic' Gold

"Gold is very cheap even at over $700 compared to many other commodities and also compared to many other assets in the world," he said in an interview from Hong Kong. "If the Fed cuts interest rates by a half a point, I think it will go ballistic, I think it will go up a lot."

• Jim Rogers is a major China bull and best three ways to play that:
• Buy currency - renminbi
• Buy commodities - The Chinese have to have commodities.
• Buy Chinese shares.
• For commodities, agriculture is the best right now - cotton, sugar, etc.  The Chinese are importing agriculture now versus being an exporter before.  There is simply not enough food to feed the Chinese.
• If history is any guide, this commodity boom will last until 2018 or 2020.  We are about a third of the way through based on historical precedent.
• There will probably be a major financial collapse in 2 or 3 major financial houses sometime in the next year.   Whatever it is, if it is an LTCM, it will cause an entire market to meltdown.  He's short the investment banks, short Fannie Mae, short homebuilders, etc.  Somebody is terribly overextended and it's going to shock us all.  The sub-prime has got a long way to go.  This has been the biggest bubble in American history debt.  Never before in American history have people been able to buy houses without putting any money down.  This time people have been able to buy houses no money down; in fact, sometimes the builders would give them money to make a down payment.  So this has been a gigantic bubble.  You don't finish a gigantic bubble in 3 or 6 months - it takes a long time to clean it up.

Agriculture is his best idea.  He also likes natural gas too.

Jim Rogers was recently interviewed by the Financial News.  Below are my notes.


Watching History Repeat Itself

Bullish on commodities, impressed by - if wary of - China, bearish on the US: Rogers can draw upon nearly five decades of experience to support his views. Of the current upswing in the market, for example, he reckons: "plenty of managers haven't got it right. People don't understand what happens in bull markets. You're going to have some big reversals and changes and a continued explosion in the price of commodities."

Rogers had his first taste of the power money brings in the swinging Sixties, but it was a meeting in 1970 that helped seal his reputation. That year he joined international investment firm Arnhold & S Bleichroeder, where he met an up and coming manager named George Soros. They later founded the Quantum Fund, which went on to deliver an investment return of 3,365% during the 1970s. Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index returned 20%.

It was a golden era for the hedge fund industry. Rogers spent his time poring over historical charts of commodity prices and currency exchange rates to learn about the ebb and flow of financial markets.

Although he parted company from Soros and stopped managing money for clients in 1980, he has continued to invest for himself and completed two round-the-world trips. In 1998 he launched the Rogers International Commodities Index, which coincided with the beginning of a bull market in commodities that he reckons has another decade to run. It has so far gained more than 250%.

That five decades of experience has led to an investment mantra based on watching history repeat itself - although not often in the most predictable way - through different market cycles. He pointed to gold, which rose 600% in the 1970s and then went down nearly every month for two years. "Most people gave up but then it went up another 850%. That's what happens in bull markets," he said.

On China

Rogers also believes the rise of China, the most important country of the 21st century, will propel the commodities bull market for another decade. He first visited China in 1984, when the first tranche of corporate equity was issued, as the economic reforms of the then leader Deng Xiaoping took a grip of the country. Twenty-three years later, China's stock market has a market capitalisation of more than a trillion dollars and has been gradually opening up to foreigners, although it continues to be dominated by domestic investors.

Rogers' commitment to China is clear. His four-year-old daughter learns Mandarin from her Chinese nanny and, if Financial News would buy his New York home, he would happily move to China tomorrow, he quipped.

But the market is not for the faint-hearted. Like others, he is wary of a bubble forming: the Shanghai stock market is up 48% this year. He worries that domestic investors are borrowing too heavily against their homes and cars, to invest in stocks, and about how loud the chatter in Shanghai brokerage houses has become. "It is getting to be a bit of a mess," he conceded and, if the stock market doubles again, he will force himself to sell. "But I won't want to."

Unlike many of his peers, Rogers is not betting on the affluence of Chinese consumers who, he believes, are too exposed to a recession. He prefers stocks in airlines, companies that service the agriculture industry and power generators.

"I know tourism in China is going to continue to grow even if there is a recession. I also know the Government is pouring its efforts into agriculture. I want to invest in things that are immune from recession," he said.

He owns shares in Japan because it has a current account surplus with China. But he believes the best way to play China is through commodities, because it is dependent on them. He points to nickel, which has risen by almost 300% since the beginning of last year. It is used in many industrial and consumer products, including stainless steel, magnets, coins and special alloys, and which China must import from countries such as Russia and Canada.

On Sugar, Cotton, Coffee, and Ethanol

Metals are less interesting to him, although he stresses that he would never be short on a commodity in a bull market. He is more intrigued by what is happening in soft commodities, such as sugar, cotton and coffee.

"I'm the world's worst market timer but I think sugar is one place you should be looking. Comparing nickel or sugar, I'd be doing my homework on sugar," he added.

Sugar prices have fallen from 16.61 cents/lb last July to about 9 cents/lb and investors are betting on it falling further. Its price has been declining because of a widening gulf between production and demand, which the London-based International Sugar Organization, estimates will be as high as 7.1 million tonnes by the end of September.

Wheat is another commodity worth backing, Rogers believes, because the amount of land dedicated to wheat farming is in decline and inventories of food stocks are at their lowest since 1972.

"We haven't had any bad droughts worldwide in the last 20 years. If the price of wheat triples, more people are going to plant it, but they are marginal hectares so it does not mean they are going to double the amount of wheat coming to market," he said.

He is sceptical that the use of biofuels made from corn and sugar will become mainstream and predicted oil will hit $100 a barrel within a decade.

Ethanol will not solve the world's energy problems, he said. "In fact, it might make them worse. To produce a litre of fuel from corn requires more energy than it produces. Even the most positive research has found that making it uses 75% of the energy it produces. Corn needs land on which to grow, so the price of everything else goes up and we are in an inflationary spiral. Biofuels cause many unintended consequences people haven't thought about."

On the United States Liquidity

But Rogers was most bearish on the US, where he is short on government bonds. He believes the US dollar is heading the way of the Dutch guilder and Spanish peso, both once the world's reserve currencies. He is concerned about record levels of liquidity and the willingness of the US Federal Reserve to continue to print money.

"There's too much liquidity and I would have thought the world's central banks should have recognised this by now," he said.

On the Yen Carry Trade

The yen-financed carry trade, where investors borrow in the low-yielding currencies to invest in those with higher yields, is worrying, he adds. And he disagrees with many of his peers who think the fallout from a sharply appreciating yen will not be as severe as in 1998.

"When the carry trade unwinds, the yen is going to go straight through the roof. I'd buy yen because, when it reverses, it's going to be a gigantic panic to reverse the position.

"And this isn't any different to 1998, either. The fact capital markets are so developed, means it is likely be worse this time," he said.

What You Should Do

Get out of the dollar, teach your children Chinese and buy as many commodities as you can.

I'll sell when Merrill Lynch has commodity brokers in every office again and the TV networks are broadcasting from the soybean pits in Chicago.

Commodities guru Jim Rogers believes so much in a real estate crash that he is selling his $15 million New York mansion and moving to Asia!

Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets.

"You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York.

"It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops.

....

"Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history," Rogers said.

....

When the last bubble burst in Japan, said Rogers, stock prices went down 85 percent despite the country's high savings rate and huge balance of payment surplus.

"This is the end of the liquidity party," said Rogers. "Some emerging markets will go down 80 percent, some will go down 50 percent. Some will most probably collapse."

While randomly surfing, I found this article written last month about Jim Rogers.  He told a packed audience of natural resources investors to "get out of the dollar, teach your children Chinese and buy as many commodities as you can".

Mr. Rogers is bullish on agricultural commodities mainly because of China:

Agricultural commodities are the next hot investment, Rogers told yesterday's minesite.com conference in London. "Wheat, soya, corn, orange juice are all far below their all-time highs. In bull markets everything eventually makes an all-time high and invariably it's multiples of the previous peak. There'll be some huge moves in agriculture."

He said he believed the commodity bull market could continue for another 15 years or more, but there would be setbacks along the way. "I expect the US economy is already in recession now and if it is not it will be within a year. You may have a consolidation in commodities next year if that happens, but it's just a normal correction."

Looking back to the 1970s when commodities soared despite deep-seated problems in most developed economies, Rogers said: "Remember, there are three billion people in Asia who were not involved last time. Even if growth in Asia were to fall by 70pc to 3pc a year, that's a lot of eggs, a lot of bicycle tyres."